Dynamic Flood Topographies in the Terai, Nepal; community perception and resilience

从山脉流出的河流供养着大量人口，这些人口依赖每年的洪水灌溉和作物的养分供应。这类人口最多的地区是恒河平原，那里有近10%的世界人口依赖喜马拉雅山的沃茨。这一地区大部分地区的特点是收入水平极低，如印度的北方邦和比哈尔邦以及尼泊尔。因此，这些地区长期以来一直通过联合王国的海外援助预算得到支持。不幸的是，喜马拉雅山脉的许多河流也是毁灭性洪水的源头，如果生活在河流洪泛区的孤立社区缺乏灾害风险管理和抗灾措施，其影响就会进一步加剧。在尼泊尔，2001年至2008年期间，洪水灾害造成的损失超过1.3亿美元，占所有自然灾害相关死亡人数的近三分之一1;这还不包括印度的下游跨境影响。最近的例子包括2008年的科西河撕裂，造成数百人死亡，数百万人无家可归，以及2013年的北阿坎德洪水，造成5000多人死亡，被视为印度自2004年以来最严重的自然灾害。北阿坎德洪水造成的大部分损失是由于河道洪峰流量期间的主要侵蚀和沉积区造成的;爱丁堡陆地表面动力学小组的研究表明，洪水期间冲积地形的动态性质驱动的主要变化信号大致可以预测。洪水期间河流形态变化的危险也在大地震后得到了强调，如2008年汶川和1999年台湾地震，山体滑坡释放到河流中的沉积物导致河床上升高达18米，在地震后的几年里，由于河道改道，造成毁灭性的洪水。2015年廓尔喀地震后尼泊尔西部留下的“地震空白”表明，该地区必须做好准备，应对大地震后类似的洪水灾害。在这个提案中，我们的目标是建立一个独特的跨学科团队，总部设在爱丁堡大学结合工程师，地貌学家，社会人类学家，人类地理学家和可持续建筑设计师。该团队将迎接学术研究如何帮助发展当地经济和拯救生命以应对尼泊尔平原洪水的挑战。我们正与国际非政府组织“实际行动”密切合作，该组织与当地社区和政府机构合作，以提高复原力。通过在尼泊尔举办的一系列研讨会，我们将了解社区的需求和需要产生的科学的性质。我们将在该地区进行实地考察，同时生成遥感地形图，以重建过去的洪水，并将其作为预测模型的输入。与工程师合作，我们将建立模型，不仅预测洪水沃茨的通过，而且预测在这些巨大的洪水期间底层河床的形状变化。在对未来洪水进行预测后，我们还将调查当地建筑的范围，以便建造更可持续的洪水平台。该项目代表了将这一战略扩展到未来的基础，并与各种不同的种族和政治背景合作，将其应用于沿着喜马拉雅洪泛平原。通过

Rivers that discharge from mountain ranges support vast populations that depend on annual floods for irrigation and nutrient supply to crops. The largest population of this type is that of the Gangetic Plains where nearly 10% of the world's population depend on waters from the Himalaya. Much of this area is also characterised by extremely low income levels such as in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar states in India, and in Nepal. Consequently, these regions have long been supported through the UK's overseas aid budget. Unfortunately, many of the Himalayan rivers are also the source of devastating floods, with effects further compounded where isolated communities, living on the river floodplain, lack disaster risk management and resilience measures. In Nepal, flood disasters were responsible for over USD 130 million losses and nearly one third of all natural disaster-related deaths between 2001 and 20081; this doesn't include the downstream cross-border impact in India. More recent examples include the 2008 Kosi River avulsion that killed hundreds and rendered millions homeless, and the 2013 Uttarakhand floods that killed over 5000 people and is viewed as India's worst natural disaster since 2004. Most of the damage generated by the Uttarakhand floods resulted from major zones of erosion and deposition during peak discharge of the channel; studies by the Edinburgh Land Surface Dynamics group demonstrated that the main signal of change driven by the dynamic nature of the alluvial topography during flooding was broadly predictable. The dangers of changing river morphology during floods has also been highlighted following major earthquakes such as the 2008 Wenchuan and 1999 Taiwan earthquakes where sediment released into the rivers from landslides caused river beds to rise by up to 18 m causing devastating floods in the years following the earthquakes due to re-routing of river courses. The 'seismic gap' left in western Nepal following the 2015 Gorkha earthquake suggests that readiness for a comparable cascade of flood hazards following a major earthquake is imperative for this region. In this proposal, we aim to build a unique interdisciplinary team based at Edinburgh University combining engineers, geomorphologists, social anthropologists, human geographers and sustainable building designers. This team will rise to the challenge of how academic research can help develop local economies and save lives in response to flooding in the Nepalese plains. We are working closely with the international NGO Practical Action who work with local communities and government bodies to improve resilience. Through a series of workshops in Nepal, we will understand the needs of the communities and the nature of the science that needs to be generated. We will use fieldwork in the region accompanied by the generation of remotely sensed topographic maps to reconstruct past floods, and as input into predictive models. Working with engineers, we will build models that not only predict the passage of flood waters, but also the changing shape of the underlying river bed during these enormous floods. Having developed predictions for future floods, we will also investigate the range of local building constructions that will enable more sustainable flood platforms to be constructed. This project represents the foundations for the expansion of this strategy into the future with applications all the way along the Himalayan floodplains in collaboration with the range of different ethnic and political contexts. Through