Evaluation, Quantification and Identification of Pathways and Targets for the assessment of Shale Gas RISK (EQUIPT4RISK)

该项目将确定、描述和参数化浅层地下和大气(以及跨界面)内的多条直接和间接路径，这些路径将与页岩气(SG)作业相关的污染源和危险源与人类和敏感的环境受体以及地表基础设施联系起来。对于该领域的每个组成部分(水、空气、固体地球)，将检查源-路径-受体组合，然后将其整合到概率风险评估(PRA)框架中，以量化对人类、基础设施和环境的风险。这项研究的一个关键方面将是了解页岩气运营的生命周期--从一个地点到一个地区的多个运营--风险状况是如何演变的。重点将放在调查影响和影响近地表(即400mBGL)源-途径-受体组合(及其相互作用)的过程上。将调查的过程包括：对污染物行为和迁移的水文地球化学控制，对空气质量的气候和化学控制，以及地震事件等地面运动的衰减。北约克郡和兰开夏郡页岩气矿区正在进行的环境监测，以及它们详细的概念和地质模型，将提供丰富和连续的、有质量保证的高精度数据集和信息。这些地点代表了不同地质环境下不同类型的页岩气作业。来自这些网站的信息，以及项目合作伙伴工作过的其他非英国网站的信息，将是一个起点，来自英国地质调查局的其他数据将补充证据基础。对这些数据的分析将支持UKGEO和其他地点的实验设计，以提高对过程理解的信心，并在受控条件下测试风险模型的不同方面，通过评估环境和人类受体的敏感性来量化特性和更好地表征/量化不确定性。这些实验还将考虑与页岩气相关的活动，如类似物和众包地面运动信息。将注重确定关键指标参数和技术，以便在短期和长期内检测页岩气活动引起的环境变化，提供早期预警。这将包括作为实验和案例研究的一部分进行测试的新技术，这些技术将允许在测量的地下水、土壤气体或大气样本中区分受刺激的储藏源流体和其他污染物，以及来自外部自然和人为来源的污染物。改进的测量、监测和量化将是有效评估和管理页岩气开发产生的风险并支持作为该项目成果开发的综合风险模型的关键。该项目将解决以下科学问题：1)浅层地下和大气的哪些属性、参数和过程(生物地球化学和物理)对于表征关键的源-路径-受体联系和组合最重要？2)英国页岩气的污染物通量和物理危险特征是什么？这些是如何随着时间的推移而演变的？这种量化的主要不确定性来源是什么？3)哪些环境变化/影响的指标/指标/措施对浅层地下和大气中的页岩气作业产生的压力最敏感？4)如何扩大单个地点的量化风险，以评估由多口井组成的完全开发的井场和作业的整个生命周期的总体风险？

The project will identify, characterise and parameterise the multiple direct and indirect pathways within the shallow subsurface and the atmosphere (and across interfaces), which link sources of contamination and hazards associated with shale gas (SG) operations to human and sensitive environmental receptors, and surface infrastructure. For each component of the domain (Water, Air, Solid Earth), Source-Pathway-Receptor combinations will be examined and then integrated in a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework for quantification of the risks to humans, infrastructure and the environment. A key aspect of the study will be to understand how the risk profile evolves over the life cycle of shale gas operations - from single site to multiple operations across an area. The focus will be on investigating the processes that affect and influence the near-surface (i.e. <400 m bgl) Source-Pathway-Receptor combinations (and their interactions). Processes that will be investigated include; hydro-geochemical controls on contaminant behaviour and transport, climatological and chemical controls on air quality, and attenuation of ground motion e.g. from seismic events. The on-going environmental monitoring at the shale gas sites in North Yorkshire and Lancashire, along with their detailed conceptual and geological models will provide rich and continuous quality-assured high precision datasets and information. The sites represent different types of shale gas operation in different geo-environmental settings. Information from these sites, along with other non-UK sites where project partners have worked, will be a starting point, with additional data from UKGEO supplementing the evidence base. Analysis of these data will then support the design of experiments at UKGEO and other sites to improve confidence in process understanding and test different aspects of the risk model under controlled conditions, quantifying properties and better characterising/quantifying uncertainty through evaluation of the sensitivity of environmental and human receptors. The experiments will also consider non-shale gas-related activities such as analogues and crowd-sourcing of information on ground movement. Attention will be given to identifying the key indicator parameters and techniques required to detect environmental changes arising from shale gas activity in both the short-term, providing early warning, and the long-term. This will include new technology tested as part of the experiments and case studies that will allow differentiation of stimulated reservoir source fluids and other contaminants from extraneous natural and anthropogenic sources in measured groundwater, soil gas or atmospheric samples. Improved measurement, monitoring and quantification will be critical to effectively evaluating and managing the risks arising from shale gas development and supporting the integrated risk model developed as an outcome of this project.The project will address the following scientific questions:1) What properties, parameters, and processes (biogeochemical and physical) of the shallow subsurface and atmosphere are most important for characterizing the key Source-Pathway-Receptor linkages and combinations? 2) What are the contaminant fluxes and physical hazard characteristics of a UK shale gas play and how do these evolve over time? What are main sources of uncertainty in such quantification?3) What proxies/indicators/measures of environmental change/impact are most sensitive to the stresses induced by shale gas operations in the shallow subsurface and in the atmosphere?4) How can the risks quantified for a single site be scaled up to assess the overall risks for a fully developed wellfield comprising multiple wells and the full lifecycle of operations?