An integrated assessment of UK Shale resource distribution based on fundamental analyses of shale mechanical & fluid properties.

页岩气有可能改变英国未来的能源安全。目前进口量占国内天然气需求的50%，预计到2035年将增加到80%左右，最大的问题是“是否有足够的页岩气资源来有效取代不断下降的北海和爱尔兰海天然气产量，以及这种情况能持续多久？”最大的未知因素是潜在的天然气储量（即可采资源），在英国生产具有商业可行性。对英格兰北部石炭纪的上鲍兰页岩有许多不同的就地估计，从Andrews（2013）提出的164-447万亿立方英尺到Uguna等人（2017）引用的8-19万亿立方英尺不等。在没有流量测试数据的情况下，无法公布可靠的可采储量估计。Cuadrilla在兰开夏郡进行了一次测试，测试结果尚未公布。油气行业、科学界、政府和环境科学家一直渴望获得现代井眼电测井、岩心和试井数据，以评估资源潜力和相关的环境影响。这种情况即将改变，计划在柴郡、兰开夏郡、北约克郡和北诺丁汉郡的拟议研究期间进行钻探。该研究项目将重点关注东米德兰兹、兰开夏、柴郡和约克郡的石炭纪（鲍兰德页岩）盆地。愿景是采用多学科方法来解决NERC呼吁挑战2中提出的主要研究重点领域的问题。我们将汇集来自英国几家机构的主要研究人员，从微孔（<10 nm）到盆地尺度，研究英国页岩科学。页岩矿物学、岩石学、地球化学、地层学、岩石力学、天然气生成和吸附以及低孔隙度岩石中的流体流动等关键方面将结合成一个整体的盆地尺度模型，以产生一套更好的科学基础估计。将测试与输入参数相关的关键灵敏度，更重要的是，将与计划井的现有生产数据进行比较。这个为期4年的项目的结果将是对英国页岩资源的位置和规模进行更科学的评估，通过改进对页岩性质和页岩流体流动的理解，在水力压裂之前，期间和之后，确定页岩气是否有可能在未来几十年对英国的能源安全产生显著影响。该项目将向主要利益相关者（政府、工业界、学术界和公众）提供有关英国页岩潜力的重要信息，并将为未来英国能源战略的讨论提供意见。与本计划其他挑战项目资助的项目合作，将使我们能够评估该资源是否能够以商业上可行和对环境负责的方式获得。[参考文献]安德鲁。石炭系Bowland页岩地质与资源评价能源和气候变化部英国地质调查局，伦敦，英国。乌古纳，C，斯内普，C, Vane， C， V.莫斯-海耶斯，V.，怀特劳，P.，史蒂文斯，L.，梅雷迪思，W.和卡尔，A. 2017。从高压水热解过程和气体吸附测量中估计页岩气储量的收敛性。第28届有机地球化学国际会议，2017年9月17-22日，意大利佛罗伦萨。

Shale gas has the potential to transform the UK's future energy security. With imports currently accounting for 50% of its domestic gas requirements, projected to rise to roughly 80% by 2035, the big question is 'Are there enough shale gas resources to effectively replace the declining North Sea and Irish Sea gas production, and for how long?' The largest unknown is the potential gas reserves (i.e. recoverable resources) that would be commercially viable to be produced in the UK. There have been a number of differing in-place estimates for the Upper Bowland Shale in the northern England Carboniferous, ranging from 164-447 tcf suggested by Andrews (2013), to 8-19 tcf quoted by Uguna et al. (2017). In the absence of flow test data, reliable recoverable reserves estimates could not have been published. There has been a single well test carried out by Cuadrilla in Lancashire, the results of which have not yet been made public. The industry, the scientific community, the government, and environmental scientists, have been starved of modern borehole electric log, core and well test data with which to assess both resource potential and the associated environmental impact. This is about to change, with drilling planned to take place during the course of the proposed study in Cheshire, Lancashire, North Yorkshire, and North Nottinghamshire. This research project will focus on the Carboniferous (Bowland Shale) basins of the East Midlands, Lancashire, Cheshire, and Yorkshire. The vision is of a multidisciplinary approach to solving problems in the main research focus areas set out in Challenge 2 of the NERC call. We will bring together key researchers from several institutions around the UK, working on UK shale science from the micro-pore (<10 nm) to the basin scale. Key aspects of shale mineralogy, petrology, geochemistry, stratigraphy, rock mechanics, gas generation and adsorption and fluid flow in low porosity rocks will be combined into a holistic basin-scale model to generate a better scientifically-grounded set of estimates. Key sensitivities related to input parameters will be tested, and more importantly, compared/contrasted with available production data from the planned wells. The outcome of this 4-year project will be a more scientifically defendable assessment of the location and magnitude of UK shale resources, guided by an improved understanding of the shale properties and fluid flow through the shale, before, during and following hydraulic fracturing to ascertain whether shale gas has the potential to have a marked impact on energy security in the UK for several decades into the future. This project will critically inform the key stakeholders (Government, Industry, Academia, and the general public) of UK shale potential, and will provide input to discussions on future UK energy strategy. Collaboration with those projects funded within the other Challenges in this programme will allow us to assess whether or not this resource can be accessed in a commercially viable and environmentally responsible way.ReferencesAndrews, I.J. 2013. The Carboniferous Bowland Shale: Geology and resource estimate. British Geological Survey for the Department of Energy and Climate Change, London, UK.Uguna, C., Snape, C., Vane, C., V. Moss-Hayes, V., Whitelaw, P., Stevens, L., Meredith, W. and Carr, A. 2017. Convergence of shale gas reserve estimates from a high pressure water pyrolysis procedure and gas adsorption measurements. 28th International Meeting on Organic Geochemistry, 17-22 September 2017, Florence, Italy.