Volcanic plume understanding and forecasting: Integrating remote-sensing, in-situ observations and models (V-PLUS)

2010年Eyjafjallajökull和2011年Grimsvötn的冰岛火山爆发鲜明地提醒人们，社会越来越容易受到火山灾害的影响。自2012年以来，火山爆发被列入英国国家民事紧急情况风险登记册，认识到潜在的社会破坏和经济损失。火山观测站和监管机构，包括九个火山灰咨询中心（VAACs），使用各种工具和数据来减轻火山喷发的影响，并确保航空安全。一些最重要的工具是大气模型，它模拟了火山烟羽成分的大气运输和移除，并形成了调节响应的支柱。这些模式预测的准确性依赖于：i)主要来自地面测量和卫星的准确输入数据；Ii)火山羽流输运和羽流过程模型表示的准确性。V-PLUS的总体目标是改变我们对火山羽流的理解，并提供方法和工具，以增强英国及其他地区的监测和预测能力。我们的项目合作伙伴和分包商包括冰岛气象局、英国气象局和埃特纳火山观测站，这确保了我们的新研究突破将被VAACs和火山观测站使用。这将增强我们减轻火山爆发造成的经济和社会危害的能力。为了实现我们的目标，V-PLUS将利用最近发射的名为对流层监测仪器（TROPOMI）的卫星传感器的数据。TROPOMI的光谱和空间分辨率比上一代仪器高12倍，首次可与地面测量相媲美，并将改变火山学的游戏规则，为表征和跟踪火山羽流提供前所未有的机会。V-PLUS将把这些新数据与地面和其他卫星数据以及大气模型结合起来，以前所未有的保真度研究火山羽流。为了提高我们从卫星图像中测量火山灰的能力，我们将进行火山实验，在火山爆发时使用无人驾驶飞行器直接采样火山灰，并测试火山活动的数值模型。除了火山灰危害外，有毒的火山硫还会降低空气质量，对人类健康产生负面影响，并可能因维修周期延长而增加飞机发动机的拥有成本。然而，目前对人体健康产生负面影响和飞机发动机功能受到损害的接触阈值和持续时间的了解极为有限。虽然目前还不需要任何vaac来预测火山硫的扩散，但人们越来越认识到火山气体及其化学转化产物的潜在危害。因此，未来对空调的需求可能会发生变化。气体和气溶胶颗粒的化学演变控制着火山喷发对健康和气候的影响，我们将通过在可接近的火山气体羽流中进行实验来研究这种化学演变。总之，V-PLUS创建的新大气模型和工具将通过案例研究进行严格测试，并转化为vaac和火山观测站直接使用的工具。因此，V-PLUS项目将产生社会和经济效益，主要是通过提高国家和国际预测火山灰和气体羽流扩散的能力，包括其对空气质量、人类健康、气候和航空的影响。

The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grimsvötn eruptions in Iceland were stark reminders that society is increasingly vulnerable to volcanic hazards. Since 2012, volcanic eruptions are listed in the UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies, recognising the high potential for societal disruption and economic loss. Volcano observatories and regulatory bodies, including the nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs), use a variety of tools and data to mitigate the impacts of eruptions, and ensure aviation safety. Some of the most important tools are atmospheric models that simulate the atmospheric transport and removal of volcanic plume constituents and form the backbone of the regulatory response. The accuracy of these model predictions relies on:i) accurate input data, mainly derived from ground-based measurements and satellites; ii) the accuracy of the model representation of volcanic plume transport and plume processes. The overarching aims of V-PLUS are to transform our understanding of volcanic plumes and deliver methods and tools that enhance monitoring and forecasting capabilities in the UK and beyond. Our project partners and subcontractor include the Icelandic Met Office, the UK Met Office and Etna volcano observatory, which ensures that our new research breakthroughs will be used operationally by VAACs and volcano observatories. This will enhance our capabilities to mitigate the economic and societal hazards posed by volcanic eruptions.To achieve our aims, V-PLUS will exploit data from a recently launched satellite sensor called TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The exceptional spectral and spatial resolution of TROPOMI, 12 times better than the previous generation of instruments, is for the first time comparable to ground-based measurements, and will be a game-changer in volcanology, providing an unprecedented opportunity to characterise and track volcanic plumes. V-PLUS will combine this new data with ground-based and other satellite data, as well as atmospheric modelling to study volcanic plumes with unprecedented fidelity. To improve our ability to measure volcanic ash from satellite imagery we will conduct experiments on volcanoes, directly sampling volcanic ash during volcanic explosions using unmanned aerial vehicles, and test numerical models of volcanic activity.Aside from volcanic ash hazards, toxic volcanic sulphur species can degrade air quality, negatively affect human health, and potentially increase the cost of ownership of aircraft engines due to an increase in maintenance cycles. However, there is at present extremely limited knowledge of exposure thresholds and durations at which negative human health effects occur and the functioning of aircraft engines is compromised. While none of the VAACs are currently required to forecast the dispersion of volcanic sulphur, there is increasing recognition of the potential hazards from volcanic gases and their chemical conversion products. Thus, the requirement for VAACs could change in future. The chemical evolution of gases and aerosol particles controls the health and climatic impact of eruptions, and we will study this chemical evolution through experiments in accessible volcanic gas plumes. In summary, the new atmospheric models and tools created by the V-PLUS will be rigorously tested using case study eruptions and translated into tools for direct use by VAACs and volcano observatories. Therefore, the V-PLUS project will have societal and economic benefits primarily through creating enhanced national and international capability to predict the dispersion of volcanic ash and gas plumes including their impacts on air quality, human health, climate and aviation.