GCRF Living Deltas Hub

河流三角洲只占全球景观的1%，但却养活了超过5亿人。三角洲是紧密耦合的社会生态系统(SESS)，但人类的开发、环境退化和气候变化的威胁日益威胁着这些微妙的土地和水之间的界面。这次申办解决的棘手的发展挑战是，面对人类发展和气候变化预期的后果，如何避免南亚和东南亚三角洲作为功能强大、生产力高的社会生态系统的崩溃。拟议的Living Deltas Hub侧重于南亚和东南亚三条主要河流的三角洲：红河和湄公河(越南)和恒河-雅鲁藏布江-梅格纳(GBM：孟加拉国、印度)。三角洲是更广泛的河流流域的一部分，因此该中心还将与泰国、柬埔寨、老挝和缅甸的其他河岸国家研究人员接触。该项目的利害关系很明显：湄公河三角洲70%的地区非常容易受到洪水的影响，700万人处于危险之中。到2100年，孟加拉国海平面上升可能导致300万至1300万人流离失所。东南亚巨型三角洲的稻米产量占全球的88%，但IPCC AR5(2014)预测的海平面上升98厘米将使孟加拉国16%的可耕地和越南25%的可耕地到2100年无法使用。上游筑坝和泥沙滞留也是一个主要威胁，由此导致的三角洲下沉使23个亚洲城市的1200万人面临洪水泛滥的风险。随着人类影响的增加，以传统知识为基础、立足于当地的可持续发展战略的必要性变得越来越大。GCRF Living Deltas Hub将共同开发理解三角洲Sess所需的跨学科框架，并将与三角洲居民和政策制定者合作开发解决方案，帮助实现三角洲背景下的联合国可持续发展目标(SDGs)。中心是新的--没有其他现有的或以前的国际三角洲倡议通过共同创建对三角洲的新的自然和文化遗产理解来具体解决可持续发展目标。它是及时的，因为它在可持续发展目标的生命周期早期就解决了东南亚三角洲退化的关键挑战，从而有助于在全球和区域以及在国家范围内发展可持续发展目标的监测和规划。该中心具有创新性，因为它强调地球与生命科学、社会科学、人文和艺术的跨学科整合，以应对这些共同的挑战。该中心将按照“公平伙伴关系”的模式运作，让三角洲居民和研究社区参与开发知识和政策，以实现更好的三角洲未来。该中心包括与全球南方伙伴和研究机构共同开发的六个创新工作包，以满足国内和三角洲范围内的具体需求。它的新知识将有助于地方、国家、区域和全球各级的能力建设和政策制定。该中心将通过改善生计和更具弹性的社区、可持续管理和保护、改善对可持续发展指标的监测以及更好的可持续发展政策来产生持久的影响。中心优势在于：人与自然系统的结合分析；人口学和国际发展；自然灾害建模和沿海复原力；环境监测和建模；资源管理、灾害、风险和复原力的政策和做法；注重可持续发展的三角洲系统及其对灾害的脆弱性的分析；司法和治理；行为金融；三角洲营养和粮食安全；以及对性别问题有敏感认识的研究。研究团队与来自三角洲国家的利益相关者合作，拥有知识、专业知识和记录，以建立对三角洲变化、新的合作伙伴关系和新解决方案的新理解。

River deltas comprise only 1% of global landscapes, yet support over half a billion people. Deltas are tightly coupled social-ecological systems (SESs), but human exploitation, environmental degradation and threats from climate change increasingly threaten these delicate interfaces between land and water. The intractable development challenge addressed by this bid is how to avoid the collapse of South and SE Asian deltas as functioning, highly productive social-ecological systems in the face of human development and the projected consequences of climate change. The proposed Living Deltas Hub focuses on the delta SESs of three major rivers in South and Southeast Asia: the Red River and Mekong (Vietnam) and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM: Bangladesh, India). Deltas form part of wider river basins and so the Hub will also engage with other riparian country researchers, in Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. The stakes for the project are clear: 70% of the Mekong delta is highly vulnerable to flooding with 7 million people at risk. Sea level rise in Bangladesh could displace between 3 and 13 million by 2100. SE-Asian mega-deltas produce 88% of the world's rice, but the 98cm of sea level rise predicted under IPCC AR5 (2014) would render 16% of arable land in Bangladesh and 25% in Vietnam unusable by 2100. Upstream damming and sediment retention is also a major threat, with resulting delta subsidence putting 12 million people in 23 Asian cities at risk from water inundation.As human impacts increase, the need for locally-rooted sustainable development strategies underpinned by traditional knowledge becomes ever greater. The GCRF Living Deltas Hub will co-develop the transdisciplinary frameworks needed to understand delta SESs, and will work with delta-dwellers and policymakers to develop solutions that can help realise the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in delta contexts. The Hub is novel - no other existing or previous international delta initiative has specifically addressed the SDGs by co-creating new natural and cultural heritage understandings of deltas. It is timely, as it addresses the crucial challenges of SE Asian delta degradation early in the lifespan of the SDGs and so contributes to the development of SDG monitoring and planning - globally and regionally, as well as in country contexts. The Hub is innovative as it emphasizes transdisciplinary integration of the earth and life sciences, social sciences, humanities and arts, to address these common challenges The Hub will operate on a model of 'equitable partnership', involving delta-dwellers and the research community in developing knowledge and policy for better delta futures. The Hub comprises six innovative work packages co-developed with Global South partners and research institutes addressing specific in-country and delta-scale needs. Its new knowledge will serve to build capacity and shape policy at local, national, regional and global levels. The Hub will have lasting impact through improved livelihoods and more resilient communities, sustainable management and conservation, improved monitoring of SDG indicators and better policies for sustainable development.The Hub brings together a transdisciplinary team of experts and practitioners from Global 'North' and 'South'. Hub strengths are in: coupled human and natural systems analyses; demography and international development; natural hazard modelling and coastal resilience; environmental monitoring and modelling; policy and practice of resource management, hazard, risk and resilience; SDG-focused analyses of delta systems and their vulnerability to hazards; justice and governance; behavioral finance; delta nutrition and food security; and gender-sensitive research. Working together with stakeholders from delta countries, the research team have the knowledge, expertise and track record to build new understandings of delta change, new partnerships, and new solutions.