FUTURE-DRAINAGE: Ensemble climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage

英国刚刚发布了新的气候预测，作为其中的一部分，明年，英国各地将发布一些高分辨率气候模型的结果。这些模型能够代表降雨的每日周期，以及降雨特征，如强度、持续时间和发生频率，比以前使用的粗分辨率模型要好得多，因此可以帮助我们了解短期强降雨事件和山洪暴发在未来可能发生的变化。在这里，我们首次提出将它们与新的高分辨率洪水模型结合起来，用于小型快速响应集水区，如波士顿，或遭受山洪暴发的城市地区。它们将共同用于更新英国城市排水设计指南和城市地表水洪水风险评估方法：国家洪水恢复力审查（2016）中确定的优先事项，并在英国适应小组委员会的《2017年英国气候变化风险评估综合报告》中重申：紧急评分表的附录，将“暴雨导致的下水道淹水风险”确定为“需要采取更多行动来提供可持续的排水系统，在适当的地方升级下水道，并解决导致地表径流增加的因素（例如，城市地区的不透水路面）”。这将包括新的“隆起”，可用于设计风暴事件，以表示气候变化对风暴的影响，并建议更新用于解决地表水洪水的现有方法和工具。未来排水系统将为英国气候变化风险评估和国家适应计划增加证据基础；并与英国政府的“25年环境计划”（2018年）保持一致，特别是通过提高英国的气候适应能力来降低环境危害的危害风险和适应气候的目标。我们的项目团队已经向英国供水和污水处理公司、苏格兰环境保护局和环境局征求了支持信，他们认为这项工作与地表水管理和雨水系统设计的应用特别相关，这证明了修订降雨量上升和新指导对英国城市排水设计和城市洪水恢复能力的重要性。因此，“未来排水”项目将为政府机构和工业部门提供全国性的重要研究成果，以提高英国的气候变化适应能力和复原力。

The new climate projections from the UK have just been released and as part of this, next year, there will be the release of outputs from a number of very high resolution climate models across the UK. These models are able to represent the daily cycle of rainfall, and rainfall characteristics like intensity, duration and frequency of occurrence, much better than coarser resolution models that have been used previously and can therefore help us to understand how short-duration intense rainfall events and flash floods might change in the future. Here we propose to couple them, for the first time, with new, high-resolution flood models for small rapid response catchments, like Boscastle, or urban areas that suffer from flash floods. Together they will be used to update guidance for urban drainage design and methods for urban surface water flood risk assessment in the UK: priorities identified in the National Flood Resilience Review (2016) and restated in the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee's UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Synthesis Report: Appendix on Urgency Scoring Tables which identified "Risks of sewer flooding due to heavy rainfall" as an area where "more action is needed to deliver sustainable drainage systems, upgrade sewers where appropriate and tackle drivers increasing surface runoff (e.g. impermeable surfacing in urban areas)." This will include new 'uplifts' that can be applied to design storm events to represent climate change effects on storms and recommendations on the updates of existing methods and tools used to tackle surface water flooding.FUTURE-DRAINAGE will add to the evidence-base for the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment and the National Adaptation Programme; and is aligned with the UK Government's 25 Year Environment Plan (2018), specifically the goal of reducing risk of harm from environmental hazards and of adapting to climate by improving climate resilience in the UK. The importance of revised rainfall uplifts and new guidance for UK urban drainage design and urban flood resilience is evidenced in the letters of support our project team has solicited from UK water and sewerage companies, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and informal support from the Environment Agency who considers the work is of particular relevance to applications in surface water management and design of storm water systems. Therefore, FUTURE-DRAINAGE will deliver nationally important research outputs for uptake by government agencies and industrial sectors to improve climate change adaption and resilience in the UK.