Addressing the unintended consequences of tropical forest restoration for people and biodiversity.

今年早些时候，媒体报道了一份重要的新报告(得到大多数政府的认可)，该报告提请人们注意我们星球上自然生态系统的下降，以及为什么这对人类福祉至关重要。现在，越来越多的人呼吁政府和社会解决环境问题--例如，支持格里塔·通贝里的气候罢工。一些政府现在正在为此努力：例如，承诺恢复自然生态系统和重新造林退化的土地。这是基于证据表明，如果停止森林砍伐(和化石燃料使用)产生的温室气体排放，如果森林恢复锁定碳，危险的全球变暖就可以被阻止。恢复森林的兴趣越来越大听起来像是一件好事，但如果没有仔细规划，可能会产生意想不到的后果。自然生态系统、农业、世界经济以及消费和贸易模式在一个全球体系中相互联系。因此，例如，如果对牧草的需求得不到解决，让牧场停产种植森林可能会间接导致其他地方的森林砍伐。这使得制定成功的环境政策变得非常困难。现在，将我们对社会、经济和生态系统如何相互作用的理解纳入其中，并开发工具整合我们的理解，使我们能够做出明智的决定，这是一个巨大而紧迫的挑战。我申请这一奖学金是为了向国际应用系统分析研究所(IIASA)的系统分析专家和英国科学家学习，他们研究如何最好地理解人与森林之间的相互作用并建立模型。系统分析是一种研究方法，通常被定义为：一门客观地阐述和解决复杂问题的科学，通常具有许多反馈。理解土地利用变化是一个典型的例子，系统分析是有帮助的，因为有许多变化的驱动因素(农业、能源、基础设施、保护)，许多相互关联的政策，以及它们之间复杂的反馈。在研究期间，我将做三件事。首先，我将结合两种方法来模拟未来的土地利用变化(例如，森林转化为农业)。这将使人们更好地了解不同的政策如何影响未来的土地利用变化。由于我以前的经验和培训，以及IIASA和英国经验丰富的科学家的专业知识，他们将帮助我发展相关技能，这是可以实现的。我将通过将模型结果与过去实际土地利用变化的观察进行比较，来测试这些模型是否真的比以前有所改善。其次，我将把我的模型应用到哥伦比亚的真实案例研究中。哥伦比亚是森林恢复的领导者(拥有国家恢复计划)，拥有特殊独特的野生动物和生态系统。我将使用这个模型来预测，如果森林恢复按计划进行，到2040年可能会发生什么。我会问，与不恢复相比，恢复森林是否会改变其他土地利用模式。特别是，这是否真的导致了其他地方森林砍伐的增加？然后，我将评估未来土地利用对生物多样性(特别是仅生活在哥伦比亚的特有物种)和生态系统服务(碳吸收和储存、水质和数量)的预期影响。我还将询问不同的政府政策是否会产生不同的结果，并评估全球贸易的相对重要性。我的目标是利用这项研究的成果直接为政策提供参考，从而为自然和人类带来更好的结果。最后，我将在IIASA的专家和英国这里的科学家之间建立合作，他们都对这些具有重大全球重要性的复杂、相互关联的问题感兴趣。这个奖学金的目的是启动一系列的合作，这些合作将超过我三年的资助，并帮助我建立我未来的研究事业。

Earlier this year, the media reported on a major new report (endorsed by most governments) that drew attention to the decline in natural ecosystems on our planet, and why this matters for human wellbeing. There are now growing calls for governments and society to address environmental issues - for example, the support for Greta Thunberg's climate strikes. Some governments are now working towards this: for example, by committing to restore natural ecosystems and reforest degraded lands. This is based on evidence suggesting that dangerous global warming could be stopped if greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation (and fossil fuel use) are halted, and if forest restoration locked up carbon.The growing interest in restoration sounds like a good thing, but it could have unintended consequences if not carefully planned. Natural ecosystems, agriculture, the world economy, and patterns of consumption and trade are connected in a global system. So, for example, taking pasture land out of production to plant forests might indirectly drive deforestation somewhere else, if the demand for pasture is not addressed. This makes designing successful policies about the environment very difficult. It is now a huge and urgent challenge to incorporate our understanding of how social, economic and ecological systems interact, and to develop tools that integrate our understanding and allow us to make informed decisions. I am applying for this fellowship to learn from experts in systems analysis at The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and UK scientists who study how the interactions between people and forests can best be understood and modelled. Systems analysis is a research approach generally defined as: the science of objectively formulating and solving complex problems, typically with many feedbacks. Understanding land use change is a typical example where system analysis is helpful, as there are many drivers of change (agriculture, energy, infrastructure, conservation), many linked policies, and complex feedbacks between them all. During the fellowship I will do three things.Firstly, I will bring together two approaches for modelling future land use change (e.g. forest conversion to agriculture). This will enable a much better understanding of how different policies could affect future land use change. Thanks to my prior experience and training, and the expertise of experienced scientists at IIASA and in the UK who will help me develop the relevant skills, this is achievable. I will test whether these models are a real improvement over what was available before by comparing model results to observations of real land use change in the past.Secondly, I will apply my model to the real case study of Colombia, a leader in forest restoration (with a national restoration plan) which has exceptional unique wildlife and ecosystems. I will use the model to predict what might happen by 2040 if forest restoration occurs as planned. I will ask if restoring forests changes other patterns of land use relative to no restoration. In particular, does this actually cause increased deforestation elsewhere? I will then assess the expected effect of future land use on biodiversity (especially endemic species that only live in Colombia) and ecosystem services (carbon draw down and storage, water quality and quantity). I will also ask if different government policies would have different outcomes, and assess the relative importance of global trade. It is my goal that the outputs of this research are used to directly inform policies that result in better outcomes for nature and people.Finally, I will build collaborations between experts at IIASA and scientists here in the UK, who are all interested in these complex, interconnected questions of great global importance. The aim is for this fellowship to kick start a range of collaborations which will outlast my three years of funding, and help me build my future research career.