Secondary forest permanence in the Brazilian Amazon

NERC：夏洛特卡罗琳·史密斯：NE/L002604/1随着大气中二氧化碳的持续上升，我们越来越需要将注意力集中在减缓气候变化上。为了将全球地表温度上升控制在1.5摄氏度以下，避免危险的气候变化，需要从大气中清除大量的二氧化碳。森林恢复是实现这一目标的最有效和最具成本效益的战略之一，热带次生林是恢复碳储存的关键。次生林生长在废弃后的空地上，其碳效益不仅取决于其范围，还取决于其持久性。然而，次生林持续性的模式是复杂的，我们对它们的理解是有限的。更好地了解这一系统将有助于更现实地估计次生林的碳潜力，并使森林恢复工作更有针对性。虽然一些研究估计了在局部范围内持续存在的可能性，但在大区域内不存在这样的预测。这限制了我们对热带碳平衡的理解，而热带碳平衡是调节全球气候的基础。次生林是一种宝贵的资源，我们必须提高对它的认识，以确保实现其潜在的碳效益。借鉴以前的工作，我们将扩大次生林动态的局部规模模型，以涵盖整个巴西亚马逊。我们将使用已知影响森林永久性的景观因素（例如，与道路的距离）和森林特征（例如，斑块大小）来模拟次生林生长和清除的概率，并估计未来次生林覆盖的碳潜力。这是提高我们对生态和经济重要性日益增加的生态系统的认识的第一步，以便在未来的政策决定中适当考虑到这一点。气候变化是一个全球性挑战，不分青红皂白地影响经济和社区。随着世界各地的政策制定者寻求了解如何减轻气候变化，重新造林是预防气候灾害最有效、最具成本效益和最现成的战略之一。该项目将有助于确保我们充分了解次生林生态系统，如果得到有效利用，在我们向可持续的无化石燃料经济过渡时，次生林生态系统可以起到缓冲作用。巴西亚马逊地区幅员辽阔，其碳平衡的变化具有全球意义的气候影响。在整个地区开展这项研究时，我们将其相关性从当地决策者扩展到国际气候政策竞技场。这些成果将与未来气候建模的国际合作、对利用再生进行碳储存感兴趣的政策制定者以及研究热带碳平衡的更广泛的科学界相关。除了科学成果外，该项目还将促进两所领先大学之间的持久合作关系。它将联合收割机兰开斯特大学的生态学和生物多样性专业知识与不列颠哥伦比亚省大学的遥感和空间分析专业;导致创新的新研究，推动当前环境模型的界限。这种跨学科合作将使资源共享能够打破以前的技术和数据访问障碍，以产生更大的影响并简化研究过程。联合研究工作将能够共享世界一流的设施，并将促进研究生发展成为高技能的全球公民。

NERC : Charlotte Caroline Smith : NE/L002604/1As atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to rise, there is a growing need to focus our attention on climate change mitigation. In order to keep the global surface temperature increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid dangerous climate change, large quantities of carbon dioxide need to be removed from the atmosphere. Forest restoration is one of the most efficient and cost-effective strategies for achieving this, with tropical secondary forest key to recovering carbon stocks. The carbon benefit of secondary forest, which grows on cleared land following abandonment, is determined not only by its extent but also by its permanence. However, the patterns of secondary forest persistence are complex and our understanding of them is limited. A better understanding of this system will allow more realistic estimates of secondary forest carbon potential and will enable forest restoration efforts to be targeted more effectively. Although some studies have estimated the likelihood of persistence on a local scale, no such predictions exist across large regions. This limits our understanding of the tropical carbon balance, which is fundamental in regulating global climate. Secondary forest is a valuable resource and it is vital that we improve our understanding of it so we can ensure its potential carbon benefits are achieved.Drawing on previous work, we will expand local-scale models of secondary forest dynamics to encompass the entire Brazilian Amazon. We will model the probability of secondary forest growth and clearance using landscape factors (e.g. distance from roads) and forest characteristics (e.g. patch size) known to influence forest permanence and estimate the carbon potential of future secondary forest cover. This is a first step in improving our understanding of an ecosystem with increasing ecological and economic importance so that it can be appropriately accounted for in future policy decisions.Climate change is a global challenge, affecting economies and communities indiscriminately. As policy-makers around the world seek to understand how it can be mitigated, reforestation presents one of the most efficient, cost-effective and readily available strategies for preventing a climate disaster2. This project will contribute to ensuring that we have a sufficient understanding of secondary forest ecosystems which, if harnessed effectively, could act as a buffer while we transition to sustainable, fossil-fuel free economies. The Brazilian Amazon is vast and changes in its carbon balance have climate implications of global significance. In conducting this research across the entire region, we extend its relevance beyond local decision-makers into the international climate policy arena. The outputs will be relevant for international collaborations modelling future climate, policymakers interested in harnessing regeneration for carbon storage, and the broader scientific community studying the tropical carbon balance.Beyond scientific output, this project will foster a lasting, collaborative relationship between two leading universities. It will combine the ecology and biodiversity expertise of Lancaster University with the remote sensing and spatial analysis specialties of the group at the University of British Columbia; resulting in innovative new research that pushes the boundaries of current environmental models. This interdisciplinary collaboration will enable the sharing of resources to break down former technological and data-access barriers to generate increased impact and streamline the research process. Joint research efforts will enable the sharing of world-class facilities and will facilitate the development of graduate students into highly skilled, global citizens.