Amazon-SOS: a Safe Operating Space for Amazonian Forests

Amazon-SOS：亚马逊森林的安全作业空间

• 批准号: NE/X019039/1
• 负责人: Jos Barlow
• 金额: $ 106.3万
• 依托单位: Lancaster University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX019039%2F1
• 关键词: Amazon; SOS; Safe; Operating; Space

The overall aim of this project is to determine and communicate the risk of significant change to the Amazon rainforest caused by anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. We will address a fundamental issue of our time, on the likelihood of Amazon rainforest dieback in the 21st century and identify regions that are most susceptible. We will combine this new knowledge with policies and scenarios developed by key stakeholders to co-design a Safe-Operating-Space for Amazonia. To address the iconic issue of Amazon dieback we will advance new ecological understanding of how forests grow, decline and recover following disturbance from climate extremes, forest fire and deforestation and their interaction in the context of 21st Century global warming. We will build novel datasets using a new forest plot network, drones and satellites to produce near-real-time maps of the risk to forests from climate, and track individual large-tree mortality across the basin. Together this information will be used in mathematical models to help estimate the risk of future forest dieback. We will join this work with models used to predict the effects of land use (forest conversion, degradation) on forest function, and the ecosystem services these forests provide to humanity. The outputs will enable us to deliver new information to policy makers regarding future options for land use, helping them to build optimal land use pathways that minimise the risks that may arise out of large-scale forest loss or dysfunction in Amazonia.The Amazon forest plays a vital role in the world's climate. In addition, by annually absorbing 5-10% of human-related CO2 emissions via vegetation growth, the region acts as a large brake on climate change. Climate extremes (eg drought), forest fires and deforestation reverse this process, causing net emissions to the atmosphere. If this were to happen on a large enough scale, via increased forest loss or increased rates of climate change - or their interaction - the resulting positive effect on global CO2 and climate change, would make the already-challenging Paris climate targets virtually impossible. In short, climate change, forest fires and deforestation have been identified as major intensifying and interacting threats to Amazonia. A substantive loss of Amazonian forest, also known as "Amazon dieback", would have huge negative consequences for human well-being, biodiversity, biogeochemical cycling, and regional and global climate. However, the level of global climate change combined with human disturbance that could trigger large-scale dieback is not known. Climate change is predicted to become more intense in the region alongside increases in human-driven deforestation and forest degradation (e.g fires, logging). Their impacts are poorly understood because of a lack of data, and because models cannot currently represent the key processes well enough. We have gathered leading UK and S American scientists in the fields of ecology, ecophysiology, Earth observation (using satellites) and the mathematical modelling of vegetation growth, land-use and climate as applied to Amazonia. We are uniquely positioned to make a step-change in understanding the combined effects of climate stress and human disturbance on Amazonia. Our measurements will build new knowledge about intact and disturbed forests, their stability and the physiology driving their stress responses. These knowledge advances will enable new modelling of forest-climate-land-use interactions which we will use to inform policymakers. We will engage with stakeholders from state to international levels to co-develop land-use scenarios that minimise risk in future climate and forest ecosystem services. Overall, we propose multiple large and integrated advances in empirical and modelling studies of the forests of Amazonia, and will build a science-policy dialogue that delivers significant impact locally, regionally and globally.

该项目的总体目的是确定和传达由人为障碍和气候变化引起的亚马逊雨林发生重大变化的风险。我们将讨论我们这个时代的一个基本问题，即21世纪亚马逊雨林死亡的可能性，并确定最容易受到影响的地区。我们将将这些新知识与主要利益相关者制定的政策和场景相结合，以共同设计亚马逊尼亚的安全空间。为了解决亚马逊死的标志性问题，我们将在21世纪全球变暖的背景下对森林的生长，衰落和恢复的新生态理解及其恢复。我们将使用新的森林情节网络，无人机和卫星来建立新的数据集，以从气候中生成近实际的森林风险地图，并跟踪整个盆地的单个大树的死亡率。这些信息将在数学模型中共同使用，以帮助估计未来森林死亡的风险。我们将加入这项工作，用于预测土地使用（森林转化，退化）对森林功能的影响以及这些森林为人类提供的生态系统服务的影响。这些产出将使我们能够向决策者提供有关未来土地使用选择的新信息，从而帮助他们建立最佳的土地使用途径，以最大程度地减少亚马逊上大规模森林损失或功能障碍可能引起的风险。亚马逊森林在世界气候中起着至关重要的作用。此外，通过每年通过植被生长吸收5-10％的与人类相关的二氧化碳排放，该地区对气候变化充当了大型制动器。气候极端（例如干旱），森林火灾和森林砍伐扭转了这一过程，导致净排放到大气中。如果这要以足够大的规模发生，则通过增加森林损失或增加气候变化的速度（或它们的相互作用）对全球二氧化碳和气候变化产生的积极影响将使已经受到挑战的巴黎气候目标几乎是不可能的。简而言之，气候变化，森林火灾和森林砍伐已被确定为对亚马逊的主要加剧和互动威胁。亚马逊森林的实质性丧失，也被称为“亚马逊死亡”，将对人类福祉，生物多样性，生物地球化学循环以及地区和全球气候产生巨大的负面影响。但是，全球气候变化的水平与可能触发大规模死亡的人类干扰相结合。随着人类驱动的森林砍伐和森林退化的增加，气候变化在该地区变得更加激烈（例如火灾，伐木）。由于缺乏数据，因此对它们的影响很少，而且由于模型目前无法很好地表示关键过程。我们已经在生态学，生态生物学，地球观察（使用卫星）以及应用于亚马逊的生态学生长，土地利用和气候的数学建模中，聚集了英国领先的美国科学家。我们在理解气候压力和人类干扰对亚马逊的综合作用方面做出了独特的位置。我们的测量将建立有关完整和干扰森林的新知识，它们的稳定性以及促进压力反应的生理学。这些知识的进步将使我们将用来向决策者提供新的森林气候土地互动建模。我们将与从州到国际层面的利益相关者互动，再到共同开发的土地使用方案，以最大程度地降低未来气候和森林生态系统服务的风险。总体而言，我们在亚马逊森林的经验和建模研究中提出了多个大型和综合的进步，并将建立一场科学政策对话，在本地，区域和全球范围内产生重大影响。