SWIMMR Aviation Risk Modelling (SWARM)

人们越来越多地意识到空间天气带来的危害，这些危害现在被列入英国国家风险登记册。一个重大的风险是由“硬的”太阳粒子事件造成的，其中包含能量大于300 MeV的粒子的大量流动。一般来说，这样的太阳事件可以通过地面中子监测器在地球表面探测到，被称为地面增强(GLE)，通常持续几个小时，到目前为止测量到的最强烈的一次是在1956年2月的英国。GLE对现代复杂系统构成危险，尤其是飞机，因为大气中产生的颗粒物会导致故障和微电子技术的损坏。此外，空袭期间可能会对机组人员和乘客造成不良的有效剂量水平。国际民用航空组织(民航组织)最近确定需要改进向航空器提供的空间气象辐射信息，但要做到这一点，需要一个分布广泛的观测网络，并辅之以经过验证的辐射环境模型，以便在观测点之间进行内插，并将数据解释为令人担忧的影响(有效剂量率和电子翻转率)。与此同时，英国气象局已经认识到，它目前没有能力为空间天气辐射危害提供必要的服务。英国气象局是英国政府空间天气风险的所有者，也是国际民航组织航空公司气象服务的主要提供商。因此，SWARM将在现有原型(MAIRE)的基础上开发一个新的数据驱动的大气辐射模型(大气电离辐射环境模型，或MAIRE+)，使气象局能够立即预报整个大气中由星系宇宙射线和GLES产生的二次粒子通量、生物剂量率和电子翻转/故障率。为了驱动MAIRE+，将使用实时地面中子监测数据、地磁扰动指数和太阳黑子指数。将提供基于国际民航组织全球网格(经度15度，纬度10度)的全球地图，覆盖海拔高达60kft，高度分辨率为3kft的地图。剂量率地图将使气象局能够根据国际民航组织对受影响地区的阈值发出警报。内部模型和工具将进行修订，以考虑到最新的科学知识，包括更新宇宙线和磁场模型，以及改进电子设备中生物剂量和翻转/故障率的计算。新的MAIRE+模型将被交付给英国气象局，然后将使用实时数据来源评估其性能，然后进行长时间的运行和验证。Spot还将开发新的、具有挑战性的能力，例如将GLE的模型有效范围提高到100公里高度(这将对未来的太空旅游和高空航空非常重要)，以及一旦GLE开始，预测GLE的时间分布。对于后者，将使用从太阳发出的粒子的星际传播的先进模型，并增加它们的粒子能量范围，以处理GLES所需的能量。这些新功能将被合并到一个‘研究’模型‘MAIRE-R’中(也交付给大都会气象局)，但它肯定不会像NOWCAST模型那么成熟。最后，为了解决预测GLE开始这一极其困难的问题，我们将审查历史记录中的证据，以确定是否可以找到这一事件子集的任何太阳前兆特征，这可能被证明是对气象局预报员有价值的帮助。

There is growing awareness of the hazards arising from space weather which are now listed on the UK National Risk Register. One significant risk is created by 'hard' solar particle events containing a significant flux of particles with energies greater than 300 MeV. In general such solar events are detectable at the Earth's surface by ground level neutron monitors and are termed ground level enhancements (GLEs) and typically have durations of some hours, the most intense so far measured being in February 1956 in the UK. GLEs present a hazard to modern complex systems, especially aircraft, as the particles generated in the atmosphere can cause malfunctions and damage to microelectronic technology. In addition undesirable levels of effective dose to aircrew and passengers can arise during GLEs. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has recently identified the need to improve space weather radiation information provided to aircraft but to do so will require a widely distributed observational network, accompanied by validated radiation environment models to interpolate between observation sites and interpret the data into the effects of concern (effective dose rates and electronic upset rates). In parallel the Met Office, which is the UK government's 'owner' for space weather risks and a major provider of meteorological services for ICAO airlines, has recognised that it does not currently have the capability to provide the necessary services for space weather radiation hazards. Consequently SWARM will develop a new data-driven atmospheric radiation model (Model for Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Environments, or MAIRE+) based on an existing prototype (MAIRE) to enable the Met Office to nowcast the secondary particle fluxes, biological dose rates and electronic upset/failure rates throughout the atmosphere arising from both galactic cosmic rays and GLEs. To drive MAIRE+, real-time ground level neutron monitor data, geomagnetic disturbance indices and sunspot indices will be used. Global maps based on the ICAO global grid (15 degrees longitude, 10 degrees latitude) covering altitudes up to 60kft with 3kft altitude resolution will be provided. The dose rate maps will allow Met Office to issue alerts based on the ICAO thresholds for the affected regions. Internal models and tools will be revised to account for the most recent scientific knowledge, including updating cosmic ray and magnetic field models and improving calculations of biological dose and upset/failure rates in electronics. The new MAIRE+ model will be delivered to the Met Office and then a lengthy period of operation and validation will follow using live data sources to assess its performance. SWARM will also develop new and challenging capabilities such as increasing the model validity range to 100km altitude for GLEs (which will be important for future space tourism and high altitude aviation) and forecasting the time-profile of a GLE once it has started. For the latter, advanced models of interplanetary propagation of particles emitted from the Sun will be used and their particle energy range increased to deal with the energies required for GLEs. These new features will be incorporated into a 'research' model 'MAIRE-R' (also delivered to the Met office), however it will necessarily be less mature than the nowcast model. Finally, to address the extremely difficult problem of predicting the onset of a GLE, we will review the evidence from the historic record to determine if any solar precursor signatures for this sub-set of events can be found which could prove a valuable aid to Met Office forecasters.