SWIMMR Aviation Risk Modelling (SWARM)

人们越来越意识到太空天气带来的危害，这些危害现已列入英国国家风险登记册。一个重大的风险是由包含能量大于300 MeV的粒子的显著通量的“硬”太阳粒子事件造成的。一般来说，这样的太阳事件可以在地球表面被地面中子监测器检测到，并被称为地面增强（GLE），通常持续数小时，迄今为止最强烈的测量是在1956年2月在英国。GLE对现代复杂系统，特别是飞机构成了危害，因为大气中产生的颗粒可能导致微电子技术故障和损坏。此外，在GLE期间，机组人员和乘客的有效剂量水平可能会出现不良水平。国际民用航空组织（民航组织）最近确定有必要改进向飞行器提供的空间气象辐射信息，但要做到这一点，就需要有一个分布广泛的观测网络，同时还要有经过验证的辐射环境模型，以便在观测地点之间进行插值，并将数据解释为令人关切的影响（有效剂量率和电子干扰率）。与此同时，英国气象局，这是英国政府的空间天气风险的“所有者”和国际民航组织航空公司气象服务的主要提供者，已经认识到，它目前没有能力提供必要的服务，为空间天气辐射危害。因此，SWARM将在现有原型（MAIRE）的基础上开发一个新的数据驱动的大气辐射模型（大气电离辐射环境模型，或MAIRE+），使气象局能够对银河宇宙射线和GLE引起的整个大气中的二次粒子通量，生物剂量率和电子干扰/故障率进行临近预报。为了推动MAIRE+，将使用实时地面中子监测数据、地磁扰动指数和太阳黑子指数。将提供基于国际民航组织全球网格（经度15度，纬度10度）的全球地图，覆盖高度达60千英尺，高度分辨率为3千英尺。剂量率地图将允许气象局根据受影响地区的ICAO阈值发布警报。将修订内部模型和工具，以考虑到最新的科学知识，包括更新宇宙射线和磁场模型，并改进生物剂量和电子产品干扰/故障率的计算。新的MAIRE+模型将交付给英国气象局，然后将使用实时数据源进行长时间的操作和验证，以评估其性能。SWARM还将开发新的和具有挑战性的能力，例如将GLE的模型有效范围增加到100公里高度（这对未来的太空旅游和高空航空很重要），并预测GLE一旦启动的时间分布。对于后者，将使用太阳发射粒子行星际传播的先进模型，并增加其粒子能量范围，以处理GLE所需的能量。这些新功能将被纳入一个“研究”模型“MAIRE-R”（也交付给气象局），但它必然不如即时预报模型成熟。最后，为了解决预测GLE开始的极端困难的问题，我们将审查历史记录中的证据，以确定是否可以找到这一子集事件的任何太阳前兆特征，这可能对气象局预报员提供有价值的帮助。

There is growing awareness of the hazards arising from space weather which are now listed on the UK National Risk Register. One significant risk is created by 'hard' solar particle events containing a significant flux of particles with energies greater than 300 MeV. In general such solar events are detectable at the Earth's surface by ground level neutron monitors and are termed ground level enhancements (GLEs) and typically have durations of some hours, the most intense so far measured being in February 1956 in the UK. GLEs present a hazard to modern complex systems, especially aircraft, as the particles generated in the atmosphere can cause malfunctions and damage to microelectronic technology. In addition undesirable levels of effective dose to aircrew and passengers can arise during GLEs. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has recently identified the need to improve space weather radiation information provided to aircraft but to do so will require a widely distributed observational network, accompanied by validated radiation environment models to interpolate between observation sites and interpret the data into the effects of concern (effective dose rates and electronic upset rates). In parallel the Met Office, which is the UK government's 'owner' for space weather risks and a major provider of meteorological services for ICAO airlines, has recognised that it does not currently have the capability to provide the necessary services for space weather radiation hazards. Consequently SWARM will develop a new data-driven atmospheric radiation model (Model for Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Environments, or MAIRE+) based on an existing prototype (MAIRE) to enable the Met Office to nowcast the secondary particle fluxes, biological dose rates and electronic upset/failure rates throughout the atmosphere arising from both galactic cosmic rays and GLEs. To drive MAIRE+, real-time ground level neutron monitor data, geomagnetic disturbance indices and sunspot indices will be used. Global maps based on the ICAO global grid (15 degrees longitude, 10 degrees latitude) covering altitudes up to 60kft with 3kft altitude resolution will be provided. The dose rate maps will allow Met Office to issue alerts based on the ICAO thresholds for the affected regions. Internal models and tools will be revised to account for the most recent scientific knowledge, including updating cosmic ray and magnetic field models and improving calculations of biological dose and upset/failure rates in electronics. The new MAIRE+ model will be delivered to the Met Office and then a lengthy period of operation and validation will follow using live data sources to assess its performance. SWARM will also develop new and challenging capabilities such as increasing the model validity range to 100km altitude for GLEs (which will be important for future space tourism and high altitude aviation) and forecasting the time-profile of a GLE once it has started. For the latter, advanced models of interplanetary propagation of particles emitted from the Sun will be used and their particle energy range increased to deal with the energies required for GLEs. These new features will be incorporated into a 'research' model 'MAIRE-R' (also delivered to the Met office), however it will necessarily be less mature than the nowcast model. Finally, to address the extremely difficult problem of predicting the onset of a GLE, we will review the evidence from the historic record to determine if any solar precursor signatures for this sub-set of events can be found which could prove a valuable aid to Met Office forecasters.