Icy thermometers: the use of glaciers to measure and monitor volcano temperature (HOT ICE)

火山爆发会摧毁基础设施，使社区流离失所，扰乱航空旅行，损害企业，不幸的是，往往会夺走人们的生命。因此，预测火山爆发具有现实世界的生与死的影响。火山爆发前往往会出现热异常现象，火山有时会在爆发前数年显示出大规模热动荡的迹象。这些异常可以从卫星搭载的红外传感器数据，如高级星载热发射和反射辐射计（ASTER）和中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）检测。基于遥感的火山监测的问题之一是冰川的存在，这可能会掩盖或扭曲热信号。这一点特别重要，因为冰层覆盖的火山可能导致一些最危险的喷发（例如触发火山泥流）。正是这些火山，这一建议的目标，通过发展一个新的，国际性的，真正的多学科合作之间的英国冰川学家，美国和意大利的火山学家。该项目将改变范式，因为它将使用位于火山上的冰川作为“温度计”，因此可以（也应该）用于改善对危险的冰层覆盖的火山的监测。这一新颖的想法是基于英国团队进行的一项初步研究，该研究表明，位于火山上的冰川（从现在开始的火山冰川）的计算平衡线高度（cELA）远远高于邻近的“正常”冰川。这表明，由于底层火山的地热通量升高，火山冰川受到基底融化的影响，因此其尺寸和海拔受到限制。火山越“热”，火山冰川的cELA就越高。 在这个项目中，我们将使用我们的国际项目合作伙伴开发的最先进的遥感技术来分析ASTER和MODIS热图像，并提取19年（2002年至今）期间南美洲冰层火山的平均热异常。与此同时，我们将计算和分析火山冰川和邻近的“正常”冰川之间的cELA偏移，并将我们的结果与火山热异常相关联，使用英国团队开发的最先进的GIS工具，并应用于高分辨率数字地形模型。我们的项目的总体目的是开发一个更好的，强大的，火山热异常和火山冰川CELA之间的定量关系。我们的研究旨在分析所有南美洲火山，在全新世的某个时候活跃，拥有一个或多个冰川，也有近端冰川，从中提取区域气候控制的cELA。首先，我们将进行冰川学分析，以突出火山冰川和邻近的“正常”冰川之间的cELA差异。然后，我们将把我们的冰川学结果与长期和短期火山热异常的分析进行比较。本提案的目的是促进一个富有成效的国际合作，这将持续超过项目的2年时间。结果将构成一个范式转变的研究冰覆盖的火山，这样冰川将不再被视为一个障碍，成像的长期热异常，但可能代表一种工具，以测量它们。最终的目标是改善对火山动荡的监测，从而防止生活在危险的冰层覆盖的火山附近的许多人丧生。

Volcanic eruptions can destroy infrastructure, displace communities, disrupt air travel, damage businesses and, unfortunately too often, take people's lives. Thus, predicting volcanic eruptions has real-world life and death implications. Eruptions are often preceded by increased thermal anomalies, with volcanoes sometimes showing signs of large-scale thermal unrest for years prior to an eruption. These anomalies can be detected from satellite borne infrared sensors data such as Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS). One of the issues with remote sensing based monitoring of volcanoes, is the presence of glaciers, which can mask or distort the thermal signal. This is of particular relevance, given that ice-clad volcanoes can lead to some of the most dangerous eruptions (e.g. triggering of lahars). It is precisely these volcanoes that this proposal is targeting, through the development of a new, international, and truly multidisciplinary collaboration between UK glaciologists, and US and Italian volcanologists. This project will be paradigm shifting as it will use glaciers located on volcanoes as "thermometers", which could (and should) therefore be utilised to improve the monitoring of dangerous, ice-clad volcanoes. The novel idea is based on a preliminary study conducted by the UK team which indicates that the calculated equilibrium line altitude (cELA) of glaciers that sit on volcanoes (volcanic-glaciers from now on) is considerably higher than for proximal "normal" glaciers. This suggests that volcanic-glaciers are impacted by enhanced basal melting due to elevated geothermal heat flux from the underlying volcano such that their dimensions and elevation are restricted. The "hotter" the volcano, the higher the cELA of volcanic-glaciers. In this project we will use state of the art remote sensing techniques developed by our international project partners to analyse ASTER and MODIS thermal imagery and extract the median thermal anomaly of ice-clad volcanoes in South America over a period of 19 years (2002-present). At the same time, we will calculate and analyse the cELA offset between volcanic-glaciers and proximal "normal" glaciers and correlate our results with the volcano thermal anomalies, using state of the art GIS tools developed by the UK team and applied to high resolution digital terrain models. The overall purpose of our project is to develop a much improved, robust, quantitative relationship between volcano thermal anomalies and volcanic-glacier cELAs. Our study aims to analyse all South American volcanoes, active at some point during the Holocene, that host one or more glaciers and also have proximal glaciers from which to extract the regional climate-controlled cELA. First, we will undertake a glaciological analysis to highlight the difference in cELA between volcanic glaciers and proximal, "normal" glaciers. We will then compare our glaciological results with an analysis of both the long- and short-term volcano thermal anomalies.The purpose of this proposal is to foster a productive, international collaboration that will outlast the 2 year duration of the project. Results will constitute a paradigm-shift for the study of ice-clad volcanoes, such that glaciers will no longer be perceived as a hindrance to imaging of longer term thermal anomalies, but may represent a tool with which to measure them. The ultimate ambition is to improve the monitoring of volcano unrest, thus preventing loss of life for many people that live nearby dangerous ice-clad volcanoes.