Integrating Nature-Climate Scenarios & Analytics for Financial Decision-Making (INCAF)

全球国内生产总值的一半以上依赖于自然，但在过去几十年里，由于不利的人类活动，生态系统受到前所未有的破坏，生物多样性出现下降。金融机构(FI)在确保一个自然积极的未来方面可以发挥重要作用。金融机构在资本配置和风险定价方面的决策影响着实体经济的结构性转变，而结构性转变对自然界有着深远的影响。今天，以造福人类、自然和金融的方式将自然与资本结合起来的机会被错失了，因为这些影响没有被考虑在内。我们的目标是贡献基础网络、提高研究人员的技能以及将生物多样性和自然纳入金融决策所需的强大、标准化的方法和工具。我们的重点是FIS用来影响风险定价和投资决策的情景，以及情景分析所需的相关和适当的数据和工具，例如资产水平数据和评估与自然相关的金融风险的工具。我们建议的另一个新方面是关于综合自然-气候情景的。供FIS使用的情景和分析必须综合考虑生物多样性和气候。生物多样性和气候经常被孤立地处理，导致潜在的系统性风险。重要的相互作用和反馈没有被考虑在内，导致低估了风险和关键临界点。我们提案中的一项重要创新是将IPBES、IPCC和FI情景社区聚集在一起，这些社区的领导人是该项目的合作伙伴，以弥补这一差距。将自然和气候结合起来需要新的科学；我们的建议是发展网络，共同设计和试点框架，以实现这一目标--即弥合差距所需的基础性共同框架和语言。这将为第二阶段奠定基础，生成所需的新数据集和工具包。在此，我们特别针对供中央银行和监管机构(CB&SS)使用的情景和分析。这是因为CB和SS是FIS更广泛作用的重要催化剂。监管预期和监管规定，如披露、资本要求和压力测试，制定了金融机构的运作规则，而货币政策塑造了竞争环境，共同对全球资本流动等性质产生了重大影响。在制定这项建议时，我们与制定这一议程和领导情景工作的主要CB&SS和政策制定者(如Defra、HMT)进行了磋商，他们都同意作为项目合作伙伴加入该项目。这包括欧洲中央银行、法国银行、荷兰银行、绿化金融系统中央银行和监管者网络(CB&SS)以及与自然有关的财务披露特别工作组(TNFD)。该项目的第一阶段将提供几个重要的组成部分。首先，它将建立和运作多学科的自然-气候-金融网络。其次，它将共同开发框架和指导，以生成自然-气候情景和分析，以及证据合成和差距分析。最后，它将向CB&S用例交付一个演示应用程序，用于压力测试与自然相关的风险。我们将从这个项目中吸取经验教训，为第二阶段提供信息，并分享它们，为更广泛的NERC自然积极未来(NPF)计划的发展提供信息。我们的目标是，所开发的网络和分析框架最终将催化资金流的转变，从而降低系统性风险，并与一个自然积极的未来保持一致。通过协商，我们了解了实现这一目标的关键里程碑和行为者，并相应地制定了项目。我们将与我们的项目合作伙伴密切合作，并与UKCGFI建立联系，以确保我们的产出能够提供给关键过程，并与更广泛的NPF方案目标合作并提供支持。

Over half of global gross domestic product is dependent on nature, yet the past decades have seen unprecedented damage to ecosystems and declines in biodiversity due to adverse human activities. Financial institutions (FIs) can play an important role in securing a nature-positive future. Decisions by FIs over capital allocation and risk pricing influence structural shifts in the real economy that have profound impacts on nature. Today, opportunities to align nature and capital in ways that benefit people, nature and FIs are missed because these impacts are not accounted for. Our aim is to contribute the foundational networks, upskilling of researchers and robust, standardised methods and tools needed to integrate biodiversity and nature into financial decision making. Our focus is the scenarios used by FIs to influence risk pricing and investment decisions, alongside the relevant and suitable data and tools needed for scenario analysis, such as asset-level data and tools to assess nature-related financial risks. A further novel aspect of our proposal is the on integrated nature-climate scenarios. Scenarios and analytics for use by FIs must consider biodiversity and climate in an integrated way. Biodiversity and climate are often treated in siloes, driving potential systemic risks. Important interactions and feedbacks are not accounted for, leading to underestimation of risks and critical tipping points. An important innovation in our proposal is to bring together the IPBES, IPCC and FI scenarios communities, leaders of whom are partners to this project, to address this gap. Integrating nature and climate requires new science; our proposal is to develop the networks and co-design and pilot the frameworks to achieve this - i.e. the foundational common framework and language needed to close the gap. This will create the foundation to Phase 2 that will generate the new datasets and toolkits needed.Here we particularly target scenarios and analytics for use by Central Banks and Supervisors (CB&Ss). This is because CB&Ss are important catalysts of wider action by FIs. Supervisory expectations and regulations, e.g. disclosure, capital requirements and stress-testing, set the rules by which FIs operate, while monetary policies shape the playing field, together having a major influence on global capital flows and so nature. In developing this proposal, we have consulted with the leading CB&Ss and policy makers (e.g. Defra, HMT) that are shaping this agenda and leading work on scenarios, all of whom have agreed to join the project as project partners. This includes the European Central Bank, the Banque de France, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors (CB&Ss) for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), and the Task Force on Nature-Related Financial Disclosures (TNFD).Phase 1 of the project will deliver several important building blocks. Firstly, it will establish and operationalise the multi-disciplinary nature-climate-finance network. Secondly, it will co-develop the framework and guidance to generate the nature-climate scenarios and analytics, alongside syntheses of evidence and gap analyses. Finally, it will deliver a demonstrator application to a CB&S use case in stress testing nature-related risks. We will capture lessons learnt through this project to inform Phase 2, as well as share them to inform the development of the wider NERC Nature Positive Futures (NPF) programme. Our goal is that the network and the analytical framework developed will ultimately catalyse shifts in financial flows that reduce systemic risks and are aligned with a nature-positive future. Through consultations, we have understood the key milestones and actors to achieve this and shaped the project accordingly. We will work closely with our project partners, and link to UKCGFI, to ensure our outputs feed into the key processes, as well as collaborate with and support the wider NPF programme goals.