LIVING ARRANGEMENTS, HEALTH AND WEALTH OF THE ELDERLY

这项拟议研究的广泛目标是了解生活安排从退休到死亡是如何演变的，它们如何取决于老年人在退休之初的初始社会经济地位，以及它们在未来不同的经济和家庭条件下可能会如何变化。我们将使用五波AHEAD数据来构建生活安排、健康状况和财富以及收入、婚姻状况、家庭联系和劳动力状况的轨迹。基于这些轨迹，我们将考虑可观察到的协变量和持续的个体水平异质性，估计由生活安排、健康状况和财富定义的状态之间转移的联合转移概率。我们将使用这些转移概率来阐明行为假设，并模拟在关于未来社会保障和医疗保险福利、儿童数量和邻近程度、女性劳动力参与率和类似社会经济条件的替代假设下，到2000年达到70岁的队列的未来生活安排。

The broad goal of this proposed research is to understand how living arrangements evolve from retirement to death, how they depend on the initial socio-economic status of the elderly at the beginning of their retirement years, and how they might change under different economic and family conditions in the future. We will use five waves of AHEAD data to construct trajectories of living arrangements, health status and wealth, together with income, marital status, family links and labor force status. Based on these trajectories, we will estimate joint transition probabilities of moving between states defined by living arrangement, health status and wealth, taking account of observable covariates and persistent individual-level heterogeneity. We will use these transition probabilities to shed light on behavioral hypotheses and to simulate future living arrangements of the cohort reaching age 70 in the year 2000 under alternative assumptions about future Social Security and Medicare benefits, number and proximity of children, and female labor force participation and similar socio-economic conditions.