Demographic Effects--Elder Households & Caregiving Needs

这个R03项目使用美国人口普查、全国家庭和家庭调查、全国家庭增长调查、国家长期护理调查以及进一步开发的多维家庭家庭预测模型ProFamy的微观数据集，调查人口结构对老年家庭和护理需求的影响。要审查的问题包括：目前和预期的未来人口结构变化将如何影响未来独居、与配偶同住、与子女或其他亲属同住、或住在养老院的老年人的数量、财产和比例？有多少人要同时照顾年迈的父母和年幼的孩子？这些变化会对老年人的护理需求和健康服务计划产生什么影响？为了实现上述重要的实质性目标，将进行广泛的实证分析和创新的方法开发。这些措施包括：(A)按种族分析和预测美国家庭，重点是老年人；(B)评估未来的护理需求，并进行政策分析和提出合理的建议；(C)方法调查和创新新的人口预测程序，以进一步开发ProFamy模型，使其更适合预测美国老年家庭和评估护理需求。本R03试验计划所建议的研究，将为日后建议作为R01计划的研究奠定坚实的基础，以预测长者的功能状况、亲子关系和居住安排。

This R03 project investigates demographic effects on elderly households and care giving needs using the micro data sets of the U.S. censuses; National Surveys of Families and Households; The National Surveys of Family Growth; National Long Term Care Surveys; and a further developed multidimensional family household projection model called ProFamy. Among the issues to be examined are the following: How will ongoing and anticipated future demographic changes affect the future numbers and properties and proportions of elderly persons who live alone, or with the spouse only, or with children or other relatives, or in nursing homes? How many persons will have to care for both old parents and young children? What would be the implications of such changes on care giving needs, and health service programs for elderly? To achieve the important substantive aims outlined above, extensive empirical analyses and innovative methodological development will be conducted. These include: (a) analysis and projections of U.S. family households by race with a focus on elderly; (b) assessments of future care giving needs and conduct policy analysis and make sound recommendations; (c) methodological investigations and innovation of new demographic projection procedures to further develop ProFamy model and make it more appropriate to project U.S. elderly family households and assess care giving needs. The research proposed in this R03 pilot project will create a solid base for research to be subsequently proposed as a R01 project on projecting elderly functional status, parent- child proximity, and living arrangement.