Sea level rise under climate change: modelling the Pliocene warm period for improved projections of the future

海平面变化(SLC)是与气候变化相关的最大危害之一。在接下来的几个世纪里，南极冰盖(AIS)的融化是对SLC的最大和最不确定的贡献。为了描述这种不确定性，需要对气候变化下的AIS进行稳健的概率模拟。这项研究将使用数值冰盖模型(BISICLES)和统计模型(GPE)来预测AIS的质量损失超过2300。为了评估BISICLES在温暖气候条件下的成功，它将模拟过去一段时期的大气二氧化碳浓度与当前大气二氧化碳浓度相似(~350-400ppm)，但全球平均温度(~3-4摄氏度，比工业化前高出)和更高的海平面(比现代高出10-30米)：上新世中期暖期(MPWP)，大约3 Ma。这些将与古海平面重建相比较，以确定哪些模型配置最真实地模拟AIS-并且应该在未来的预测中给予最大的权重。通过使用这种方法，这里提议的项目将提供AIS对可持续发展的百年贡献的更确切的概率预测。

Sea level change (SLC) is one of the most significant hazards associated with climatechange. The largest and most uncertain contribution to SLC in the coming centuries ismelting from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). To characterise this uncertainty requires robustprobabilistic simulations of the AIS under climate change.This study will use numerical ice sheet modelling (BISICLES) and statistical modelling(Gaussian Process Emulation (GPE)) to project AIS mass loss over to 2300. It will use an'ensemble' approach sample uncertainty in factors governing AIS dynamics and generateprobabilistic projections of its contribution to SLC.To evaluate the success of BISICLES under warm climate conditions, the ice sheet will besimulated for a past period with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations similar topresent (~350-400 ppm) but higher global mean temperatures (~3-4 oC abovepreindustrial) and much higher sea levels (10-30m above modern): the mid-Pliocene warmperiod (mPWP), around 3Ma.These will be compared with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level to identify which modelconfigurations most realistically simulate the AIS- and should be given greatest weight in thefuture projections. By using this approach, the project proposed here will provide morerobust probabilistic projections of the multi-centennial AIS contribution to SLC.