Welfare Benefits and Family Structure: A Reconcillation

描述(由申请人提供)：一份关于影响的大量文献 年在生育、婚姻、同居和家庭结构方面的福利 在过去的十年里，将军已经长大了。这一趋势的核心是 文献倾向于认为福利福利对老年人有一定的影响。 许多方向在许多人假设的方向上有一些影响(例如， 更高的福利导致更低的结婚率和更多的非婚 生育率)，但围绕着 影响的大小，甚至可能它的存在，因为 不同研究中估计的离散度。在这一问题上缺乏共识 研究结果削弱了研究对政策制定者的影响， 通常认为学术研究是不确定的，或者，或者， 能够支持任何结论。在研究中缺乏共识 研究结果削弱了研究对政策制定者的影响，他们经常 认为学术研究没有定论，或者认为有能力 支持任何结论。该项目将通过开展以下工作来解决这个问题 在一次尝试中进行了一系列重复、稳健性和协调研究 缩小过去研究工作的差异，并试图 就效应的存在和大小达成共识。该项目将是 分成第一阶段，解释不同研究之间的差异 以及第二阶段，在该阶段中使用统计方法来选择“最佳”模型 规格测试和新规格测试。在主要的和小学的 阶段，几项主要研究的估计值将首先使用 上每篇论文中使用的相同数据集、模型和估计模型 在其他论文中使用的数据集，尽可能使用相同的 样本、变量定义和计量经济学方法；然后是差异 研究之间的差异将追溯到每一项研究的差异 因素--相同变量的基础数据集的差异； 变量定义；在二次抽样总体中；在模型规范和 计量经济学方法。第二阶段将包括规格测试以 在其他型号规格中进行选择，以及更详细的 对涉及家庭重要性的几个假设的检验 背景，男女工资的影响，以及替代统计 规格。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): A substantial literature on the effect of welfare benefits on fertility, marriage, co-habitation, and family structure in general has grown up over the last decade. The central tendency of this literature tends to suggest that welfare benefits have some effect in the direction many have some effect in the direction many have hypothesized (e.g., higher welfare benefits leading to lesser marriage rates and greater nonmarital fertility rates) but there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of the effect, and possibly even its existence, because of the large dispersion in estimates across different studies. This lack of consensus in research findings has weakened the impact of the research on policy-makers, who often regard the academic research as inconclusive or, alternatively, as capable of supporting any conclusion. This lack of consensus in research findings has weakened the impact of the research on policy-makers, who often regard the academic research as inconclusive or alternatively, as capable of supporting any conclusion. This project will address this problem by conducting a series of replication, robustness, and reconciliation studies in an attempt to narrow the differences across past research efforts and in an attempt to build a consensus for the existence and size of effects. The project will be divided into a primary phase in which difference across studies are explained and a secondary phase in which "best" models are chosen using statistical specification tests and new specifications tested. In the major and primary phase, the estimates from several major studies will first be replicated using the same data sets, models, and estimating the models used in each paper on the data sets used in the other papers, using the greatest extent possible the same samples, variable definitions, and econometric methods; then the differences between studies between studies will be traced to differences in each of these factors--differences in the underlying data sets for the same variables; in variable definition; in subsampled populations; and in model specification and econometric method. The secondary phase will consist of specification test to choose among the alternative model specifications as well as a more detailed examination of several hypotheses involving the importance of family background, the influence of male and female wages, and alternative statistical specifications.