Mathematical modelling to enhance preparedness for emergence of midge-borne viruses in the UK

欧洲马匹种群正日益受到新出现病毒的威胁。其中值得注意的是非洲马病病毒(AHSV)，它通过叮咬的蚊子传播。最近爆发的密切相关的蓝舌病毒(BTV)说明了AHSV未来入侵的可能性，影响深远。同样，Schmallenberg病毒(SBV)在2011年出现在欧洲牲畜中之前并不为人所知；BTV和SBV都被认为是由于受感染的蚊子被吹过英吉利海峡而到达英国的结果。该项目的目的是加强对英国出现AHSV的准备。将利用关于AHSV传播和传播的现有知识，以及关于英国马群人口统计和被困在密集马群附近的蚊子的新信息，开发评估AHSV传入和传播风险的数学模型。AHSV模式将基于现有的BTV传播模式。模型开发将包括对模型参数的敏感性分析，以评估模型预测的不确定性，因为关于马群人口统计的信息比关于受BTV影响的农场动物种群的信息更稀疏。当该模型用于AHSV时，它将被用来估计可能爆发的AHSV的规模以及这种病毒在英国持续存在的可能性。该模型还将用于测试不同控制方案(包括疫苗、病媒控制、驱虫剂、住房、诱饵、扑杀马匹和限制行动)的相对有效性。

The European equine population is increasingly threatened by emerging viruses. Notable amongst these is African horse sickness virus (AHSV), which is transmitted by biting midges. Recent outbreaks of the closely-related bluetongue virus (BTV) illustrate the potential for future incursion of AHSV, with far-reaching impacts. Similarly, Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was unknown until it emerged in European livestock in 2011; both BTV and SBV are thought to have reached the UK as a result of infected midges being blown across the English Channel. The aim of this project is to enhance preparedness for emergence of AHSV in the UK. Mathematical models to assess the risk of introduction and spread of AHSV will be developed using existing knowledge of the transmission and spread of this virus, as well as novel information on the demographics of the equine population in the UK and identity of midges trapped in close proximity to dense equine populations. The AHSV model will be based on an existing model for the spread of BTV. Model development will include a sensitivity analysis of model parameters to assess the uncertainty of model predictions, because there is sparser information available about the demographics of the equine population than about the population of farm animals affected by BTV. When the model has been parameterised for AHSV, it will be used to estimate the scale of possible AHSV outbreaks and the potential for this virus to persist in the UK. The model will also be used to test the relative effectiveness of different control options (including vaccines, vector control, insect repellents, housing, decoys, equine culling and movement restrictions).