Risky Futures: Toward a Computational Process Model of Risky Inter-Temporal Choice

很多人都知道人们的喜好。人们现在喜欢他们的回报。大多数人宁愿今天10美元，也不愿一个月后20美元。风险也不具吸引力；一定的10美元比获得25美元的50%的可能性更具吸引力。令人惊讶的是，人们对延误和风险之间的相互作用知之甚少。也就是说，对于人们是现在更喜欢10美元，还是一个月后50美元的可能性为50%，人们知之甚少。这个项目将结合实验和认知模型来检验所有三种类型的选择。其结果将是一个新的计算模型，它将阐明延迟和风险之间的复杂相互作用，从而回答文献中一个持久的问题：风险和延迟在心理上是等价的吗？

A lot is known about people’s preferences. People like their rewards now. Most would prefer $10 today than $20 in one month. Risk is also unattractive; a certain $10 is more attractive than a 50 per cent chance of receiving $25. Surprisingly, much less is known about the interaction between delay and risk. That is, relatively little is known about whether people prefer $10 now, or a 50 per cent chance of $50 in one month. This project will use a combination of experiments and cognitive modelling to examine all three types of choice. The outcome will be a novel computational model that will elucidate the complex interaction between delay and risk, thereby answering an enduring question in the literature: are risk and delay psychologically equivalent?