(WCUB) The effects of temperature and habitat on temporal variartion in the diversity and abundance of Lepidopteran larvae in temperate woodlands

从落叶树到鳞翅目幼虫再到食虫鸟类的食物链经常被用来研究气候变化对物候错配的影响。然而，尽管鳞翅目幼虫在温带森林的食物网中占据中心地位，但对影响其物候和环境中丰度的因素知之甚少。已知温度会影响鳞翅目幼虫的发育速率，无论是在进食过程中还是作为某些生活史阶段开始的线索，尽管这在特定的内部和内部是如何变化的尚不清楚。食物植物的身份也可以影响的发展速度，死亡率，成年形态，并在多食性物种的物候选择。因此，温度和生境可能是影响温带林地春季鳞翅目幼虫时间丰度变化的主要因素。为了预测气候引起的不匹配变化在林地生境中的变化，有必要了解（1）温度如何影响鳞翅目幼虫的发育和物候，以及（2）这些物种如何与其食用植物相互作用，以及改变生境和植物群落的后果。本项目旨在确定触发幼虫发育阶段的温度线索（卵孵化）、幼虫对温度的塑性反应的性质以及当地适应对这种反应的地理变化的贡献。此外，它将研究幼虫的多样性和丰富度如何随食用植物物种而变化，多食性物种中食用植物的适应性如何不同，以及幼虫物候与食用植物同步的性质。该项目将使用自2014年以来从苏格兰蓝山雀样带收集的数据，该样带由40个站点组成，从爱丁堡向北延伸200公里。在每个地点，在春季监测树木的物候，以记录萌芽阶段，并从树木样本中收集毛虫。将利用统计建模技术来确定幼虫发育的温度线索及其对丰度随时间变化的影响，特别是春季高峰的发生。重点将放在10个毛虫物种最强烈的代表性饮食的蓝山雀。此外，这些物种的选择将在实验室条件下饲养，以确定在塑料对温度的反应的地理变异的遗传分歧的贡献。该项目还将结合联合收割机统计建模和幼虫的实验饲养，以确定鳞翅目幼虫的丰度和多样性如何在林地社区的食用植物中变化。将在实验室条件下进行进一步的饲养实验，以确定幼虫适合度如何在多食性物种的不同食用植物中变化，并随着叶龄的增加而变化。最后，个人的实验饲养将结合实地观察和样带数据，以确定潜在的适应性基础的塑料反应（如在鸡蛋孵化日期）的温度，以及如何这与物候的食用植物物种。实验结果将被用来告知建模过程，建模和实验方法的结合将产生可靠的结论。

The deciduous tree to Lepidopteran larvae to insectivorous bird food chain is frequently utilised to study the effects of climate change on phenological mismatch. Yet, despite the larvae of Lepidoptera occupying a central position in the food webs of temperate forests, the factors influencing their phenology and abundance within the environment are poorly understood.Temperature is known to affect rates of larval development in Lepidoptera both continually during feeding and as a cue for the onset of certain life history stages, though how this varies inter- and intra-specifically is unknown. Food-plant identity can also affect rates of development, mortality, adult morphology, and selection on phenology in polyphagous species. Therefore, both temperature and habitat are likely to be major factors in influencing variation in the temporal abundance of Lepidopteran larvae during spring in temperate woodlands.To predict how climate-induced changes in mismatch vary among woodland habitats it is necessary to understand (1) how the development and phenology of Lepidopteran larvae are affected by temperature, and (2) how these species interact with their food-plants and the consequences of changing habitat and floral communities.This project aims to identify the temperature cues which trigger stages in larval development (egg hatching), the nature of the plastic response of larvae to temperature, and the contribution of local adaptation to geographical variation in this response. In addition, it will examine how larval diversity and abundance varies with food-plant species, how fitness differs across food-plants in polyphagous species, and the nature of larval phenological synchronisation with food-plants at a site.This project will employ data collected since 2014 from the Scottish blue tit transect, a set of 40 sites extending 200km northwards from Edinburgh. At each site tree phenology is monitored during spring to record stages of bud burst and caterpillars are collected from a sample of trees. Statistical modelling techniques will be utilised to identify temperature cues for larval development and its influence on temporal variation in abundance, particularly the occurrence of the spring peak. Focus will be placed on 10 caterpillar species most strongly represented in the diet of blue tits. Furthermore, a selection of these species will be reared under laboratory conditions to determine the contribution of genetic divergence to geographical variation in the plastic response to temperature. This project will also combine statistical modelling and experimental rearing of larvae to determine how the abundance and diversity of Lepidopteran larvae varies across food-plants in woodland communities. Further rearing experiments under laboratory conditions will be conducted to determine how larval fitness varies across different food-plants in polyphagous species and with increasing leaf age. Finally, experimental rearing of individuals will be combined with field observations and transect data to determine the underlying adaptive basis of the plastic response (e.g. in egg hatch date) to temperature, and how this relates to the phenology of the food-plant species. Experimental results will be used to inform the modelling process, and the combination of modelling and experimental approaches will generate robust conclusions.