The role of mathematical modelling for knowledge production in infectious disease outbreak responses

数学建模对知识生产在应对传染病暴发中的作用：对其应用程度以及模型生产者和消费者之间的互动进行评价，并对如何最好地应对全球卫生问题作出决定，越来越多地受到数学建模和经济分析结果的影响。这些方法很复杂，经常被政策制定者视为“黑匣子”，他们在做出政策决策时，需要考虑通过对其他类型的证据和数据进行建模得出的结果，以及更广泛的卫生系统限制因素和政治和经济现实。评估模型的制作者如何清楚地阐述他们的发现、他们分析的局限性以及政策制定者如何理解这些是重要的。在这里，我们与疫苗影响建模联盟(VIMC)合作对此进行评估。VIMC成立于2016年，汇集了来自世界各地的20多个流行病学建模小组，所有小组都专注于疫苗影响建模。该联盟是应Gavi、疫苗联盟和比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会确定的需求而成立的。该项目旨在与VIMC、各国政府、捐助者和其他利益攸关方密切合作，评估如何在国家一级转化全球疫苗模型产出。

The role of mathematical modelling for knowledge production in infectious disease outbreak responses: An evaluation of the extent of its application and the interaction between model producers and consumersDecisions about how to best respond to global health issues are increasingly being informed by results from mathematical modelling and economic analysis. The methods are complex and often viewed as a 'black box' by policy-makers who need to consider the findings from modelling against other types of evidence and data, as well as wider health system contraints and political and economic realities when making policy decisions. Evaluating how well producers of models articulate their findings, the limitations of their analyses, and how policy-makers understand these is important. Here we assess this in collaboration with the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC). Established in 2016, the VIMC bring together over 20 epidemiological modelling groups from all over the world, all with a focus on vaccine impact modelling. The Consortium was established in response to an identified need by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This project aims to work in close collaboration with VIMC, governments, donors and other stakeholders to assess how the global vaccine model outputs are translated at the national level.