Methods and policy pathways to optimize production of mixed stocks of biological resources

与粮食安全、生物多样性以及抗生素、杀虫剂和化肥的使用有关的全球环境问题建议在农业、林业和农业中使用作物/库存的智能组合：即所谓的多元文化。然而，这方面的一个障碍是，与单一文化相比，多元文化的复杂性。这种复杂性不仅在于实际照料和收获混合文化，而且还在于确定和保持最佳混合。事实上，生态学理论(Rossberg 2013，ISBN 9-780470973-55-4)预测，无论是在野外还是在管理系统中，这类混合物的组成对外部压力的敏感性都会随着物种数量的增加而稳步增加。因此，需要有方法(1)根据内在的权衡为多元文化设定可实现的管理目标，(2)确定相应的最佳组合，(3)了解结果的可预测性，以及鉴于固有的不确定性，实现最佳所需的管理强度。第三，当不同角色的利益相关者参与管理和使用时，就会出现复杂性的第三个政治方面。然后，人们需要(4)了解目标的可接受性，例如关于合作的内在激励。这些是BBSRC战略优先事项1(农业和粮食安全)范围内的一般性问题领域，解决突出的研究需求，即“提高作物和动物生产的效率和可持续性”，同时“最大限度地减少对环境的负面影响”和“保护生物多样性和其他生态系统服务”。这些问题领域之间的相互依赖关系建议针对特定系统来研究它们，这样就不会错过重要的实际约束。北海密集管理的混合渔业是一个很好的示范系统。生态模型很好地描述了它，利益相关者承认将其作为一种多元文化(而不是一组独立的“野生”种群)进行管理的好处。该项目的目的是制定一个原型管理计划，解决上述四个问题领域。工作计划：第1年：上文(1)和(2)。使用CEFAS开发的现有北海生态系统模型，找到与Farcas&Rossberg(2016年，doi：10.1093/icesjms/fsw113)提出的客观性相对应的最佳多元文化。其中包括目前的方法，它忽视了生物相互作用；最大化总生物质产量；以及博弈论方法。量化模型不确定性对管理结果的影响，以及由此产生的调整计划以实现目标的需要。第3年：地址(4)。与利益攸关方社区(渔民、科学家、政策制定者、非政府组织)互动，并记录对评价的政策选择的态度和反应。在此基础上，结合复杂系统理论、控制理论、经济理论、生物学、政治学等多学科的研究成果，向利益相关者提出一个长期的管理计划。它将检验Farcas和Rossberg(2016)之前提出的假设。科学出版物将面向那些对渔业感兴趣的读者以外的受众，因为正如所解释的那样，基本原则具有更广泛的相关性。对于非学术合作伙伴CEFA来说，关于渔业管理的政策建议是核心业务，鉴于英国脱欧，对英国渔业管理能力的需求有所增加。

Global environmental issues related to food security, biodiversity, and use of antibiotic, pesticide andfertilizers suggest use of smart mixtures of crops/stocks in agriculture, forestry, and farming: so called polycultures. A barrier to this is, however, the complexity of polycultures compared to monocultures.This complexity lies not only in physically tending and harvesting mixed cultures, but also in identifying and maintaining the optimal mix. Indeed, ecological theory (Rossberg 2013, ISBN 9-780470973- 55-4) predicts that sensitivity of the composition of such mixtures to external pressures, e.g. fertilization, climate, pests, increases steadily with the number of species, both in the wild and in managed systems. Hence there is a need for methods (1) to set attainable management objectives for polycultures in light of inherent tradeoffs, (2) to identify corresponding optimal mixtures, (3) to understand the predictability of outcomes and of the management intensity required to attain optima in view of inherent uncertainties. A third, political, aspect of complexity arises when stakeholders with different roles participate in management and use. One then needs to (4) understand agreeability of objectives, e.g. in terms of inherent incentives to collaborate.These are generic problem areas, located within the remit of BBSRC Strategic Priority 1 (agriculture and food security) addressing the highlighted research need to "increase the efficiency and sustainability of crop and animal production", while "minimising negative environmental impacts" and "preserving biodiversity and other ecosystem services". Interdependencies between these problem areas advises to study them for a specific system, so not to miss important practical constraints. A good model system is the intensely managed mixed fishery of the North Sea. It is well described by ecological models, and the benefits of managing it as a polyculture (rather than as a set of independent "wild" stocks) are acknowledged amongst stakeholders.Aim of this project is to develop a prototype management plan addressing the four problem areas enumerated above.Workplan:Year 1: Address (1) and (2) above. Using the existing North Sea Ecosim model developed by Cefas, find optimal polycultures corresponding to the objectivities proposed, e.g., by Farcas & Rossberg (2016, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsw113). These include the current approach, which disregards biological interactions; maximization of total biomass yield; and game-theoretical approaches.Year 2: Address (3). Quantify the impact of model uncertainty on management outcomes and the resulting need for adaptation of plans to achieve objectives. Year 3: Address (4). Interact with the stakeholder community (fishers, scientists, policy makers, NGOs) and document attitudes and responses to the evaluated policy options. Based on this, propose a long-term management plan to stakeholders.This interdisciplinary research pulls together thinking from complex systems theory, control theory, economic theory, biology, and political science. It will test hypotheses previously developed by Farcas and Rossberg (2016). Scientific publications will address audiences beyond those interested in fisheries because, as explained, the underlying principles are of much wider relevance.For the non-academic partner Cefas, policy advice on fisheries management is core business and, in view of Brexit, demand for UK competency in fisheries management has increased.