Peacemaking, Policy, and the Politics of Evidence: A critical grounded theory of issue and technical bias in the 2012-2016 Colombian Peace Process

我提出的研究着眼于在2012-2016年哥伦比亚政府和哥伦比亚革命武装力量（FARC）之间的哥伦比亚和平进程（CPP）中使用循证决策（EBPM）。建立和平的进程旨在使政治中立，从而促进和平。在CPP中，两党共同制定了解决冲突原因和影响的政策，支持了谈判进程：农村土地改革、政治参与、“非法毒品问题”，最终解决了暴力问题。政策制定涉及广泛使用参与性证据和和平建议，这是由系统的、中立的管理过程促进的。它还涉及在谈判桌上和谈判之外使用专家分析。不幸的是，农村暴力事件的增加和可卡因产量的增加表明，这些政策可能是无效的或错误的。我认为这是问题和/或技术偏见的结果。问题偏见是利用EBPM人为地将固有的政治问题去政治化；技术偏差是对EBPM中科学最佳实践的偏离。CPP中的EBPM表现出这些偏见，因为哥伦比亚革命武装力量政府的冲突特定政策被视为解决更广泛问题的灵丹妙药（问题偏见），而且这些政策在其定义的范围内也是无效的（潜在的技术偏见）。我希望通过使用批判现实主义的视角来解释和定性分析访谈和文献数据，探索这些偏见是如何产生的。在博士学习的第二年，将在哥伦比亚对20-30名官僚、政治家、非国家行为者和其他利益相关者进行访谈。通过使用开放编码、轴向编码、归纳、演绎和还原（包括定量分析）的过程，将出现一个关键的接地理论。与方法相一致，这一关键的理论将是解放性的，实行变革，以防止今后建立和平方案中的问题偏见和技术偏见（考虑到有关的因果变量）。这将产生重大影响，因为在由于政治和政策问题而产生冲突的情况下，持久和平取决于解决办法的有效性。因此，我希望通过在建立和平进程中创造和传播关于维和方案及其偏见的知识，为成功解决和预防哥伦比亚和其他地方的暴力冲突作出贡献。

My proposed research looks at the use of evidence-based policymaking (EBPM) within the 2012-2016 Colombian Peace Process (CPP) between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The process of peacemaking is designed to neutralise politics, thus promoting peace. In the CPP, the negotiation process was supported by the bipartisan creation of policies addressing the causes and effects of the conflict: rural land reform, political participation, the 'illicit drugs problem', and - ultimately - violence. Policymaking involved the extensive use of participatory evidence and proposals for peace, as facilitated by a systematic - neutrally administered - process. It also involved the use of expert analysis at the negotiation table and beyond. Unfortunately, the rise in rural violence and the increase in cocaine production suggests these policies may be ineffective or misplaced. I contend that this is the result of issue and/or technical bias. Issue bias is the artificial depoliticisation of inherently political issues using EBPM; technical bias is a deviation from scientific best-practice in EBPM. EBPM in the CPP exhibits these biases because the FARC-government conflict specific policies were sold as a panacea to wider issues (issue bias) and the policies have also been ineffective within their defined scope (potentially technical bias). I wish to explore how these biases came to be by interpreting and qualitatively analysing interview and documental data using a critical realist lens. Interviews with 20-30 bureaucrats, politicians, non-state actors, and other stakeholders will take place in Colombia in the second year of PhD study. By using a process of open-coding, axial coding, induction, deduction, and retroduction (including quantitative analysis), a critical grounded theory will emerge. Consistent with the methodology, this critical grounded theory will be emancipatory, enacting change to prevent issue bias and technical bias in future peacemaking scenarios (taking into account the relevant causal variables). This will have a significant impact because, in situations where conflict has arisen due to politics and policy issues, lasting peace depends on the effectiveness of solutions. Thus, by creating and disseminating knowledge about EBPM - and its biases - in the peacemaking process, I hope to contribute to the successful resolution and prevention of violent conflicts in Colombia and elsewhere.