Does Voting for the Winner Make Your Group Better Off? How Vote Choice Affects (Relative) Group Income & Wellbeing Growth in the United Kingdom

目前关于发达民主国家内部分配政治的实证文献集中于回答以下问题的变体-政府在做出支出决定时倾向于哪些领域？在这个项目中，我将这种传统的经验策略与一种不同的方法相结合，在这种方法中，我分析了不同群体的投票行为（由收入、年龄等特征定义）是否决定了政府在做出分配决策时对他们的偏袒程度。特别是，我研究了那些在上次选举中投票给政府的群体，或者那些可以被说服在下次选举中投票给政府的群体，是否也是分配决策的受益者，这些决策增加了他们的收入和福祉。通过利用大选前后的不连续性，我确定了（可说服的）选民组成变化对税收、社会保障政策和福祉变化的因果影响。最后，我实施了不平等分解，以估计群体之间的收入和福祉不平等有多少可以用（可说服的）选民组成的变化来解释

The current empirical literature on distributive politics withinadvanced democracies focuses on answering variants of thefollowing question - which areas do governments favourwhen making expenditure decisions? In this project, Icombine this traditional empirical strategy with a differentapproach, where I analyse whether the voting behaviour ofdifferent groups (defined by characteristics such as income,age etc.) determines the extent to which governmentsfavour them when making distributive decisions. In particular,I examine whether groups who voted for the government atthe last election, or who could be persuaded to vote for thegovernment at the next election, are also the beneficiaries ofdistributive decisions that enhance their income andwellbeing. By exploiting the discontinuities around generalelections, I identify the causal effect of changes in thecomposition of (persuadable) voters on changes to taxation,social security policies and well-being. Finally, I implement aninequality decomposition to estimate how much of theincome and wellbeing inequality between groups can beexplained by changes in the composition of (persuadable)voters