Multi-scale sub-national energy systems modeling for sustainable energy transitions

项目总结：鉴于能源系统脱碳的关键挑战，需要从地方到全球层面的行动者采取行动。英国政府最近的一份报告特别指出，在热脱碳方面，地方行动和战略的重要性，与地区和国家政策和规划保持一致。这就需要进行协调，以确保脱碳战略是一致的和相互加强的，因为脱碳战略往往相互关联并依赖于其他各级的行动。例如，地方当局可能依靠中央政府提供的资金来执行地方计划，而国家战略则可能依靠地方一级的协调或执行。因此，当局必须考虑到其他政府规模，并就脱碳战略达成共识。本文通过开发一个多尺度的热部门模型来探索从地方到国家尺度的情景路径，从而支持这一过程。情景路径是形成对未来能源系统的思考并为决策提供信息的一种行之有效的方法。通过提供跨尺度一致的途径，这项工作旨在补充地方和国家模型，以提供帮助形成跨尺度热脱碳战略的协调和共同思维的手段。同时，它旨在阐明多尺度能源系统优化模型的方法论方面，这些模型的适应性超出了论文的主题范围。它旨在解决以下研究问题：*在国家背景下，当地特征如何影响当地热脱碳的不同策略和途径？*在国家尺度的能源模型中，区域和局部区域的空间明确表征对有利能源未来的产生有什么影响？为了解决这些研究问题，该项目建立并应用了一种创新的能源建模方法。它解决了之前在当前能源模型中确定的两个具体挑战。首先，该方法旨在通过在全国能源系统优化模型中纳入表示次国家区域的不同方法，进一步了解在能源模型中表示不同尺度的知识。其次，这项工作强烈致力于解决能源建模的透明度和可重复性的挑战，促进开放科学的概念。它基于开源建模框架，旨在依靠开放数据来创建一个可访问和透明的模型设置，允许严格检查并促进进一步使用工作。

Project summary: In light of the crucial challenges in decarbonizing the energy system, action is required by actors from the local to the global level. A recent report of the UK government argues in particular with respect to heat decarbonization for the importance of local action and strategies, which align with regional and national policies and planning. This requires coordination to ensure decarbonization strategies, which are often interlinked and dependent on actions on other levels, are aligned and mutually reinforcing. Local authorities might, for example, rely on funding from the central government to implement local plans while national strategies might depend on coordination or enforcement at the local level. Thus, it is vital for authorities to take into account other governmental scales and to develop a common understanding of decarbonization strategies. This thesis is interested in supporting this process by developing a multi-scale heat sector model to explore scenario pathways spanning local to national scale. Scenario pathways are a well established way to shape thinking about the future energy system and inform policy-making. By providing pathways consistent across scales, this work intends to complement local and national models to provide the means to help shape coordination and common thinking on heat decarbonization strategies across scales. At the same time, it intends to shed light on the methodological aspects of multi-scale energy system optimization models, which are adaptable beyond the topical sphere of the thesis. It aims to address following research questions:* How might local characteristics influence varying strategies and pathways for local area heat decarbonization within the national context?* What is the influence of spatially explicit representations of regions and local areas in a national scale energy model on the generation of favorable energy futures?In order to address these research questions, the project establishes and applies an innovative energy modeling approach. It addresses two specific challenges previously identified in current energy models. First, the approach aims to further knowledge on representing different scales in energy models by incorporating different ways of representing subnational areas within a nationwide energy system optimization model. Second, the work is strongly committed to tackle the challenge of transparency and reproducibility in energy modeling, fostering the notion of open science. It is based on an open-source modeling framework and aims to rely on open data to create an accessible and transparent model setup allowing for critical examination and facilitate further use of the work.