CREDIBILITY OF PREDICTIONS OF REACTOR CORE CONDITION

一般来说，英国约20%的电力来自核电站[http://gridwatch.co]。英国/英国/]由法国电力公司运营。这些电站正接近其计划寿命的终点，因此它们中的一些通常会关闭以进行检查和维护[https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses]]。它们未来运行的一个关键因素是反应堆中石墨的状况，石墨减缓了中子，也形成了堆芯的结构。在检查期间，对石墨芯的内表面进行检查和测量，以支持反应器运行期间石墨降解的模型[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlaUky_v55I]]。大部分堆芯无法进入意味着测量数据仅限于少数几个位置，而对整个堆芯状况的预测则需要用于支持有关反应堆安全运行的决策。已经开发了可信度矩阵和相关的可信度因素，用于评估航空航天工程和计算生物学中不可测试的模型；并提出对这些工具进行扩展和改进，以建立决策者对核反应堆石墨堆芯状态预测的信任。该项目将考虑最大限度地利用和收集石墨岩心测量数据的策略，以及改进关于模型质量（包括其不确定性）的信息交流协议。该项目将由一个从事航空航天工程和生物技术方面类似工作的研究小组进行；和行业监管将由EDF提供。

Typically, about 20% of the UK's electricity is supplied from nuclear power-stations [http://gridwatch.co.uk/] which are operated by EDF. These power-stations are approaching the end of their planned life so that a number of them are usually shutdown for inspection and maintenance [https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses]. A key factor in their future operation is the condition of the graphite in the reactor which moderates the neutrons and also forms the structure of the core. During inspection periods, the inner surface of the graphite core is examined and measured to support models of the degradation of the graphite during the operation of the reactor [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlaUky_v55I]. The inaccessibility of most of the core means that measurement data is limited to a few locations whereas predictions about the condition of the entire core are required to support decisions about the safe operation of the reactor. A credibility matrix and associated credibility factors have been developed for use in evaluating untestable models in aerospace engineering and computational biology; and, it is proposed to extend and modify these tools to establish trust amongst decision-makers in predictions of the condition of the graphite core in nuclear reactors. The project will consider strategies to maximise the use and collection of measurements from graphite cores, as well as to improve protocols for communicating information about the quality of a model including its uncertainty. The project will be conducted in a research group involved in similar work in aerospace engineering and biotechnology; and industrial supervision will be provided by EDF.