Predicting demand for UK HE within the global HE market

国际学生的流动性在英国高等教育体系中起着至关重要的作用。作为第二大最受国际学生欢迎的目的地，近10%的国际学生选择在英国学习。尽管高等教育部门发生了重大变化，但对于学生申请的驱动因素、他们对外部冲击和政策变化的反应以及英国国际学生流动性的未来，仍然缺乏实证研究。通过我的博士论文，我的目标是对国际学生申请的过去、现在和未来进行全面的分析。我的第一篇论文关注的是2009-2019年影响国际学生申请的因素的异质性。为此，我在一个多层次负二项框架中对关键的推动和拉动因素进行了建模，并分析了影响每个来源国资金流动的因素的独特组合。在我的第二篇论文中，我研究了2020年、2021年和2022年外部冲击和政策变化的影响。利用差异中的差异和多层次回归框架，实证衡量了英国脱欧和新冠肺炎对国际学生的影响。最后，我的目标是通过比较常见的预测方法和探索引入机器学习技术的潜力，为国际学生的应用程序做出预测。这些预测将帮助我们了解人口、政治和经济冲击和发展如何影响未来的国际学生申请。总的来说，我的研究为英国高等教育的国际学生申请及其未来几年的潜在轨迹提供了一个全面的视角。

International student mobility plays a vital role in the UK's higher education system. As the second most popular destination for international students, nearly ten per cent of all international students choose to study in the UK. Despite significant changes in the higher education sector, there remains a lack of empirical research on the drivers of student applications, their response to external shocks and policy changes, and the future of international student mobility in the UK. Through my PhD thesis, I aim to provide a comprehensive analysis of the past, present, and future of international student applications. My first paper focuses on the heterogeneity of factors that impacted international student applications from 2009-2019. To achieve this, I model key push and pull factors in a multi-level negative binomial framework and analyse the unique combinations of factors that influence flows from each country of origin. In my second paper, I investigate the impact of external shocks and policy changes in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Using difference-in-differences and a multi-level regression framework, I empirically measure the impact of Brexit and COVID-19 on international students. Finally, I aim to produce forecasts for international student applications by comparing common forecasting methods and exploring the potential of introducing machine learning techniques. These forecasts will help us understand how demographic, political, and economic shocks and developments may affect international student applications in the future. Overall, my research provides a holistic view of international student applications in UK higher education and their potential trajectory in the years to come.