The Castilian and Iberian crises as the cause for the European General Crisis of the 17th century: Commercial and Monetary perspectives (1575-1700).

该项目的目的是对卡斯蒂利亚商业危机（始于1575-1576年）和17世纪欧洲危机之间的经济因素进行定量和定性研究。该项目认为，前者是后者的原因——后者实际上是一场以经济为基础的危机。该假说提出，卡斯蒂利亚的衰退有商业根源，这场危机是17世纪欧洲长期萧条的主要原因之一。此外，欧洲的这场普遍危机确实有经济基础。德弗里斯关于非马尔萨斯、非周期性和全球危机的论文指出了这个方向。Acemoglu等人也认为危机的开始是经济的。然而，年鉴学派的观点仍然是马尔萨斯式的，仅仅是地中海式的衰落。近代早期世界对卡斯蒂利亚经济的一般解释是马尔萨斯式的、封建的、扩张的农业经济。然后，掠夺性和掠夺性的机构导致其长期表现不佳。同样，学者们通常将17世纪的欧洲危机理解为政治、制度和社会基础。然而，卡斯蒂利亚对商业和美国金条的高度依赖指向了另一个方向。欧洲经历的深刻的货币冲击和商业和经济变化（例如，经济中心转移到大西洋北部）也证明了这一点。因此，该项目提出了欧洲和西班牙历史编纂的积极修正主义，以及“半外围”和“核心”经济之间存在的关系。然后，所采取的方法步骤注定要结束这种矛盾的局势。这是几个步骤。首先，确定卡斯蒂利亚危机的货币原因，以及其在欧洲方面的后果。第二，量化17世纪欧洲经济危机的程度（通过不同的变量）。第三，界定第一次和第二次危机之间的商业联系。为了做到这一点，有必要在几个商业变量上构建时间序列。这些指标包括：商业汇兑、货币账户（冲击和储备）、欧洲银条和铸币的流动、制造业竞争力和主要欧洲国家的贸易收支。

The aim of this project is to conduct a quantitative and qualitative study of the economic factors linking the Castilian commercial crisis (starting in 1575-1576) and the European crisis of the Seventeenth century. The project argues that the first is the cause of the latter - which is indeed an economy-based crisis - . The hypothesis proposes that the recession in Castile had commercial roots and that the crisis was one major cause of the European long depression in the 17th century. Moreover, this general crisis in Europe had, indeed, economic foundations. De Vries thesis on non-Malthusian, non-cyclical and global crisis points to that direction. Acemoglu et al. also consider the beginning of the crisis as economic. However, it is still present the Annals School's argument of Malthusian, only-Mediterranean decline.The general interpretation of Castile's economy in the early-modern world is of that a Malthusian, feudal and expansive agrarian economy. Then, extractive and predatory institutions caused its poor long-run performance. Likewise, scholars usually understand the European crisis in the 17th century as political, institutional and socially-based. However, Castilian high dependency on commerce and American bullion points to the other direction. The profound monetary shocks and commercial and economic changes experienced in Europe (e.g. displacement of the economic centre to the Atlantic North) also claims otherwise. Therefore, the project proposes a positive revisionism of the European and Spanish historiography and the relationships existent between 'semi-peripheries' and the 'core' economies. Then, the methodological steps undertaken are destined to end the contradictory situation. These steps are several. First, the identification of the monetary causes of the Castilian crisis, as well as its consequences in the European side. Second, the quantification of the degree of the economic crisis of the 17th century in Europe (through different variables). Third, the definition of the commercial linkages between the first and the second crises. In order to do so, it is essential the construction of time series on several commercial variables. Those include: commercial exchanges, monetary accounts (shocks and stocks), European flows of silver bullion and coinage, manufactures competitiveness and trade balances of payments of the major European countries.