"WORKSHOPS IN FORMAL AND QUANTITATIVE DEMOGRAPHY"

描述（由申请人提供）：这是一个修订后的建议，设计和进行两个研讨会，在每两年，研究生和博士后学生，涵盖正式的人口统计学和相关的分析方法。这里的正式人口学首先指的是基于更新方程的人口分析，它植根于阿尔弗雷德·洛特卡（Alfred Lotka）和现代人口学家如安斯利·科尔（Ansley Coale）、内森·基菲茨（Nathan Keyfitz）和塞缪尔·普雷斯顿（Samuel Preston）的工作。 其次，正式的人口学是指最近的工作，描述人口的过渡，随机动态，集体动态和人口经济模型。最后，正式的人口学包括在特定的实质性背景下发展这些方法，包括生育率，死亡率，残疾，移民，网络和一系列其他主题-发展植根于社会，人口和经济过程的正式模型。这些模型不一定是分析性的：它们包括作为计算机程序制定的模型。我们计划每年举办两次研讨会。首先，为期14天的夏季研讨会，涵盖正式的人口统计学，建模方法和技术，以及相关的计算方法。第二，围绕专门主题举办了为期三天的高级建模和分析小型讲习班（第一年预测，第二年生物人口模型）。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This is a revised proposal to design and conduct two workshops in each of two years, for graduate and postdoctoral students, covering formal demography and related analytical methods. Formal demography here refers in the first place to demographic analysis based on the renewal equation, rooted in the work of Alfred Lotka and demographers of the modem age such as Ansley Coale, Nathan Keyfitz, and Samuel Preston. Secondly, formal demography refers to more recent work describing populations in transition, stochastic dynamics, collective dynamics, and demographic-economic models. Finally, formal demography includes the development of these methods in specific substantive contexts including fertility, mortality, disability, migration, networks, and a range of other topics - development that is rooted in formal models of social, demographic, and economic processes. These models are not necessarily analytical: they include models that are formulated as computer programs. The program we propose consists of two workshops each year. First, a Summer Workshop of 14 days covering formal demography, modeling methods and techniques, and related computational methods. Second, a three-day Mini-workshop in advanced modeling and analysis organized around specialized topics (forecasting in year 1, biodemographic models in year 2).