Resilience and adaptation of First Nations Communities in Canada to Disappearing Winter Road Infrastructure in a Changing Climate

自前工业时代以来，北极经历了比0.87 ℃的长期全球平均趋势高出两到三倍的变暖，导致冰冻圈普遍缩小。预计这种北极放大效应将持续整个世纪，预计全球平均气温升高2摄氏度（GMTI）将导致北极升温6摄氏度（IPCC，2018年）。虽然对冰盖和冰川的影响往往成为头条新闻，但对北极和亚北极社区的基础设施也有重要影响，气温变暖威胁到陆上运输路线及其所维持的社会的实际完整性。具体而言，冬季道路-包括季节性冻结的海洋，土地，湖泊，河流和小溪-受到气候变化的巨大威胁。这些季节性道路对于负担得起的重型设备、货物和燃料运输至关重要，但也提供了物理连接，促进了偏远社区之间的社会和文化互动（Chiotti和Lavender 2008）。近几十年来，气候变化缩短了北方冬季道路的运营季节，这一问题在加拿大北极和亚北极地区尤为严重（例如Mullan等人，2017年）。以前的研究往往侧重于冬季道路季节缩短对向矿山运输基本物资的经济影响，而很少关注对生活在没有全季节基础设施的偏远地区的社区的社会和文化流动性的影响。在加拿大，许多这样的社区是第一民族，他们居住在630多个定居点，主要在安大略和马尼托巴的北方地区。在加拿大，第一民族和非土著群体之间的社会经济差距很大，几乎一半的第一民族儿童生活在贫困之中。冬季道路是至关重要的季节性运输路线，为第一民族人民提供建设和维持生计所需的基本物资。由于气候变化缩短了冬季道路季节的长度，第一民族社区将不成比例地感受到影响。该项目结合使用定量、定性和地理空间方法，旨在研究气候变化将如何影响连接这些偏远社区的冬季道路，以及原住民如何适应气候变化，以提高他们在变暖世界中的适应能力。

The Arctic has experienced warming two to three times greater than the long-term global mean trend of 0.87oC since preindustrial times, resulting in widespread shrinking of the cryosphere. This arctic amplification is projected to continue throughout the 21st century, with a 2oC global mean temperature increase (GMTI) projected to result in up to a 6oC warming in the Arctic (IPCC, 2018). While impacts on ice sheets and glaciers tend to capture the headlines, there are also important consequences for infrastructure in Arctic and sub-Arctic communities, where warming temperatures threaten the physical integrity of overland transport routes and the societies they sustain. Specifically, winter roads - comprising seasonally frozen sea, land, lakes, rivers and creeks - are under considerable threat from climate change. These seasonal roads are vital for the affordable transport of heavy equipment, cargo and fuel, but also provide physical connections that foster social and cultural interactions among remote communities (Chiotti and Lavender 2008). In recent decades, climate change has shortened the operational season of winter roads in the northern hemisphere, with the issue particularly acute across the Canadian arctic and sub-arctic (e.g. Mullan et al, 2017). Previous studies have tended to focus on the economic impacts of a shortened winter road season on transporting essential supplies to mines, with much less attention paid to the impacts for social and cultural mobility among communities living in remote locations without all-season infrastructure. In Canada, many such communities are First Nations People, who live across over 630 settlements mostly in northern areas of Ontario and Manitoba. The socio-economic gap between First Nations People and non-indigenous groups in Canada is vast, with almost half of First Nations children living in poverty. Winter roads represent vital seasonal transport routes that provide access to essential supplies needed to build and sustain the livelihoods of First Nations People. With climate change shortening the length of the winter road season, the impacts will be disproportionately felt by First Nations communities. Using a combination of quantitative, qualitative and geospatial methods, this project aims to examine how climate change will impact winter roads that link these remote communities and how First Nations People could adapt to enhance their resilience in a warming world.