The predicting individual: expectations and their influence on emotional state and welfare

理论和实验证据都强调了大脑在预测环境中会发生什么以及从预测错误中学习以更新日益可靠的世界模型方面的作用。在人类和动物中，最近的研究也表明，预测错误本身可以影响个人的情绪状态和福利。在短期内，意想不到的回报和损失会分别产生“高兴”和“失望”的状态。最近对人类学习和决策的计算分析表明，比预期更好的决策结果对“幸福”的影响比积极结果本身的总体验更大。从长期来看，动物环境中所需资源的损失似乎是消极状态和不良福利的一个潜在原因，而这些资源的增加则具有相反的效果。个人更新预测的能力也可能是幸福的重要决定因素。与那些更新速度较慢的人相比，在遇到意外结果时随时更新预测的快速学习者在处理环境的持续变化时可能比在处理不稳定和短暂的变化时更有优势。该项目将调查短期和长期变化对人类（短期）和啮齿动物（短期和长期）的情感状态和福利的影响。研究对象将在短期（例如学习和决策任务）和长期（例如住房）环境中进行研究，这些环境的特点是高变化率或低变化率，与绝对的回报和损失水平相匹配。情感状态和幸福的测量将被记录下来，包括主观报告（人类），对环境的偏好，以及情感和幸福的行为和生理标记。因此，累积的奖励经验与事情进展比预期的好还是坏之间的相互作用将被剖析。还将调查受试者在面对变化（例如学习任务）时如何更新行为的个体差异对其对不同环境的反应的影响。也将有机会设计产生积极预测误差的环境，看看这些是否能增强情感状态和福利。研究结果将对动物住房的设计和管理产生理论影响和实际意义。该学生将接受动物行为和福利科学、决策心理学以及应对变化的计算分析方面的培训。他们将学习实验设计、行为和福利研究方法，以及统计/计算分析方法。

Theory and experimental evidence emphasize the role of the brain in generating predictions about what will happen in the environment and learning from any errors of prediction to update an increasingly reliable model of the world. In both humans and animals, recent research also indicates that prediction errors themselves can influence an individual's emotional (affective) state and welfare. In the short-term, unexpected rewards and losses can generate states of 'elation' and 'disappointment' respectively. And recent computational analyses of human learning and decision-making suggest that decision outcomes that are better than predicted have a stronger influence on 'happiness' than the total experience of positive outcomes per se. In the longer-term, the loss of desired resources from an animal's environment appears to be a potent cause of negative states and poor welfare, whilst addition of such resources has the opposite effect. An individual's ability to update predictions may also be an important determinant of wellbeing. Fast learners who readily update predictions when unexpected outcomes are encountered may be at an advantage when dealing with sustained changes to their environments than when changes are erratic and transient, compared to those who update more slowly. This project will investigate the influence of short- and longer-term change on affective state and welfare in humans (short-term) and rodents (short- and long-term). Subjects will be studied in short-term (e.g. learning and decision-making tasks) and long-term (e.g. housing) environments characterised by high or low rates of change, matched for absolute levels of reward and loss. Measures of affective state and wellbeing will be recorded, including subjective report (humans), preference for environments, and behavioural and physiological markers of affect and welfare. The interplay between cumulative experience of reward and whether things are going better or worse than predicted will thus be dissected. The influence of individual differences in how subjects update behaviour when faced with change (e.g. in learning tasks) on their responses to the different environments will also be investigated. There will also be opportunities to design environments that generate positive prediction errors to see if these can enhance affective state and welfare. Findings will have theoretical impact and also practical implications for the design and management of animal housing. The student will receive training in animal behaviour and welfare science, decision-making psychology, and computational analyses of response to change. They will learn experimental design, behaviour and welfare research methods, and statistical / computational analysis approaches.