Marijuana use & labor market outcomes: Causal mechanisms

描述（由申请人提供）：利用过去25年全国青年纵向调查的数据，本提案将是第一个通过比较生物统计学和计量经济学建模技术来测试青少年和年轻人使用大麻与成人劳动力市场结果之间的因果关系。令人惊讶的是，许多文献报道了大麻使用与积极的劳动力市场结果之间的联系，但他们对横断面数据的依赖，以及他们无法适当控制大麻使用者和非使用者之间基线协变量（异质性）的差异，使他们的结论的有效性受到质疑。本研究旨在1)利用生物统计学（倾向得分）和计量经济学（工具变量）模型技术检验青少年和青年大麻使用与成人劳动力市场结果之间的因果关系；2)在以往倾向得分和工具变量模型的基础上，调整大麻使用与劳动力市场结果之间关联的调节和中介因素。识别和适当控制基线协变量，理解调节和中介途径，并验证结果将加强我们对大麻使用负面结果的理解。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Using data from the past 25 years of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this proposal will be the first to test causal pathways from adolescent and young adult marijuana use to adult labor market outcomes comparing biostatistical and econometric modeling techniques. Surprisingly, much literature has reported associations between marijuana use and positive labor market outcomes, but their reliance on cross- sectional data, and their inability to properly control for differences in baseline covariates (heterogeneity) between marijuana users and non-users brings into question the validity of their conclusions. This study aims to 1) utilize biostatistical (propensity score) and econometric (instrumental variable) modeling techniques to test for causal associations between adolescent and young adult marijuana use and adult labor market outcomes, and 2) to adjust for moderating and mediating factors on the association of marijuana use and labor market outcomes by building on the previous propensity score and instrumental variables models. Identification and proper control for baseline covariates, understanding moderating and mediating pathways, and validating results will strengthen our understanding of the negative outcomes of marijuana use.