The state and fate of mountain permafrost and implications for debris supply in glacierised catchments

气候变暖在许多山区很明显，这导致了高海拔永久冻土的退化。反过来，永久冻土退化降低了斜坡的稳定性，影响了物质运动的规模和频率，这可能对生命构成危害，并在景观演变中发挥关键作用，特别是山地冰冻圈。全球永冻土带化模式提供了给定参考时期的永冻土状态的空间概览，并可以为更详细的区域和地方尺度分析提供信息，例如为物质运动清单提供大尺度的冰冻圈背景。使用卫星和地面观测和分析的流域尺度分析可以提供额外的粒度，这对于详细了解冰冻圈状态、探索与地貌过程的联系以及为流域管理计划提供信息（从水资源和危害管理的角度）至关重要。该项目的目标是：1利用气候再分析数据更新现有的全球永久冻土区带模型，并利用代表性浓度路径（RCP）轨迹模拟未来的永久冻土区带；2 .使用陆地表面模型，在选定的冰川覆盖的集水区获得冻土退化的更高时空分辨率估计（包括实地考察部分）探讨永久冻土退化的影响以及其他预备和触发因素对连续（如小岩崩）或偶然（如岩石雪崩）向冰川覆盖的集水区运送碎片的影响。

Climate warming is pronounced is many mountainous regions, which is causing degradation of high altitude permafrost. In turn, permafrost degradation reduces slope stability, with implications for the magnitude and frequency of mass movements which can pose a hazard to life and play a key role in landscape evolution, particularly of the mountain cryosphere. Global permafrost zonation models provide a spatially extensive overview of the state of permafrost for a given reference period and can inform more detailed regional- and local-scale analysis, e.g. for providing broad-scale cryospheric context for mass movement inventories. Catchment-scale analysis using satellite- and ground-based observation and analysis can provide additional granularity which is key for developing a detailed understanding of cryospheric state, exploring links to geomorphic processes, and for informing catchment management plans (both from water resources and hazard management perspectives).The objectives of this project are:1 To update an existing global permafrost zonation model using climate reanalysis data and to simulate future permafrost zonation using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectories;2 Use a land surface model to obtain higher spatiotemporal resolution estimates of permafrost degradation in select glacierised catchments (includes fieldwork component).3 Explore the implications of permafrost degradation and other preparatory and triggering factors for the continuous (e.g. small rockfalls) or episodic (e.g. rock avalanches) delivery of debris to glacierised catchments.