The Long-Term Human Capital Impacts of Resettlement: Evidence from Soviet Oppression in Lithuania Lithuania, 1940s to now

我假设，政治暴力，特别是在苏联的强制安置，在立陶宛的人力资本产生了长期的负面影响。历史学家认为，苏维埃政权政治暴力的主要目标是受教育程度较高的人-政治家、律师、教师、商人和地主。如果这是真的，可以想象，斯大林政权期间更高水平的政治暴力可能导致恐怖时期原籍地人力资本水平较低。随后，据估计，只有不到25%的被驱逐者返回（Anusauskas，2012年）。反过来，我们预计会通过路径依赖产生长期影响。这一假设可能得到了过渡时期生活调查的支持，该调查显示，受苏联统治者的孙辈今天的教育水平较高（过渡时期生活调查，2016年）。考虑到压迫的目标和规模，当时至少有10%的人口受到直接影响，被驱逐者相对较多的原籍地可能会有更糟糕的人力资本结果。通过这项工作，我将构建一个新的数据集，包括整个原籍地在立陶宛和长期的人力资本和政治成果的驱逐强度。

I hypothesize that political violence, and especially forced resettlement in the USSR has had long-term negative impacts on human capital in Lithuania. Historians maintain that the main target of political violence in the Soviet regime were persons with relatively high levels of education -politicians, lawyers, teachers, businessmen and landowners. If this is true, it conceivable that higher levels of political violence during Stalin's regime may have led to lower levels of human capital at origin localities during the time of terror. Subsequently, it is estimated that less than 25% of deportees ever returned (Anusauskas, 2012). In turn, we would expect long-lasting impacts through path dependence. This hypothesis is potentially supported the Life in Transition survey, which shows that the grandchildren of persons subjected to Soviet oppressions have higher levels of education today (Life in Transition Survey, 2016). Given the targets and the scale of oppression, with at least 10% of the population at the time being affected directly, origin localities that experienced relatively higher levels of deportees could have measurably worse human capital outcomes until today. Through this work, I will construct a novel dataset consisting of deportation intensity throughout origin localities in Lithuania and long-term human capital and political outcomes.