Searching for a bit of peace and quiet despite unreliable cues: dispersal, settlement, and fitness of a top predator in multi-use forests and

完整标题为：寻找一点和平与宁静，尽管不可靠的线索：分散，定居和健身的顶级捕食者在多用途森林和监测捕食者-猎物动态非平衡生态系统分散是一个重要的信息收集阶段在生命周期的有机体，采样世界寻找合适的网站复制。扩散行为可能对人口统计学产生深远的影响，因此应用物种管理。许多物种都有一整年或更长时间的兼性长期扩散，使它们能够在多个季节收集有关机会的信息。然而，这些物种的个体可以更快地做出决定，在哪里定居和繁殖，特别是在有空置领土的地区。然而，由于季节性变化的条件，散布者可获得的信息可能不可靠。例如，有些地点在探矿者访问时可能看起来很有吸引力，但在年度周期的后期时间点，由于e. G.干扰繁殖或迫害成年人。这样的时间生态陷阱可以产生适应不良的栖息地选择，减少健康的不知情的分散个人和创造有吸引力的人口汇，减少整个人口的增长。该学生将使用无与伦比的人口监测和卫星标记数据来验证苍鹰的扩散规则和影响，苍鹰是英国重新野化的旗舰物种。苍鹰作为一种繁殖物种已经被有效地灭绝，但在20世纪60年代重新引入后逐渐恢复，商业针叶树种植园作为人口来源，产生了过剩的青少年，需要分散在更危险的更广泛的景观中，其潜在的生态陷阱。与公共和私营部门的森林管理人员以及专业的业余和专业鸟类学家一起工作，我们的学生将测试这一假设，即生态陷阱的出现是因为传播者收集的信息与随后影响人口统计的有害事件之间存在严重的时间不匹配：- 苍鹰最喜欢的筑巢区由于英国北方森林中树木的普遍年龄结构，（低干扰的封闭冠层森林）变得越来越稀少。繁殖季节以外的林业作业（砍伐和间伐）可能会取代繁殖对，在饱和地区，替代地点有限。- 在松鸡沼泽和野鸡围栏（天真的圈养野鸡是诱人的猎物）附近的非法迫害最普遍的是在筑巢和后羽翼阶段（成年人和小鸡/少年被杀），而不是分散。因此，分散的个体可能会经常被吸引到死亡率高的地区。在高舒适价值的森林中，经常进行的户外活动急剧增加，包括山地自行车、步行和跑步。这种活动造成的干扰在假日期间达到顶峰，与苍鹰繁殖而不是分散相吻合。学生将严格评估森林管理的相对贡献，管理种植园外的生存和干扰英国苍鹰种群的动态和未来的生存能力，提供证据来塑造大规模的保护政策。因此，该项目将培养一名新的科学家，采用最先进的定量分析方法，阐明保护和经济活动之间必然出现的权衡，以及受保护物种在异质景观中的动态。

FULL TITLE IS: Searching for a bit of peace and quiet despite unreliable cues: dispersal, settlement, and fitness of a top predator in multi-use forests and monitoring predator-prey dynamics in non-equilibrium ecosystemsDispersal is a crucial information gathering stage in the life cycle of organisms, sampling the world in search of suitable sites to reproduce. Dispersal behaviours can have profound implications for demography, and hence applied species management. Many species have facultative protracted dispersal spanning an entire year or more, allowing them to gather information about opportunities over multiple seasons. However, individuals of these species can make more rapid, and potentially less-informed, decisions on where to settle and reproduce, especially in areas with vacant territories. However, the information available to dispersers may be unreliable because of seasonally changing conditions. For instance, some sites may appear attractive when visited by prospectors, but become suboptimal at later timepoints within the annual cycle through high mortality due to e. g. disturbance of breeding attempts or persecution of adults. Such temporal ecological traps can produce maladaptive habitat selection, reducing the fitness of ill-informed dispersing individuals and creating attractive demographic sinks that reduce the growth of the entire population. The student will use unparalleled demographic monitoring and satellite tagging data to characterise the rules and implications of dispersal in the goshawk, a flagship species for rewilding in the UK. Goshawks had effectively been extirpated as a breeding species but are gradually recovering following reintroductions in the 1960s, with commercial conifer plantations acting as demographic sources, generating a surplus of juveniles that need to disperse within the more dangerous wider landscape with its potential ecological traps. Working alongside public and private sector forest managers and dedicated amateur and professional ornithologists, our student will test the hypothesis that ecological traps arise because of sharp temporal mismatches between information gathering by dispersers and subsequent deleterious events affecting demography: - Goshawks' favoured nesting areas (closed canopy forests with low disturbance) are becoming scarcer owing to the prevailing age-structure of trees in northern UK forests. Forestry operations (felling and thinning) outside the breeding season can displace breeding pairs, and in saturated areas, alternative sites are limited. - Illegal persecution in the vicinity of grouse moors and pheasant pens (where naive captive-reared pheasants are tempting prey) is most prevalent during nesting and post-fledging stages (adults and chicks/juveniles killed) rather than dispersal. Dispersing individuals may thus be recurrently attracted to areas of high mortality.- Recreational outdoor activities in high amenity value forests are increasing sharply, including mountain biking, walking and running. The disturbance caused by such activities peaks during holiday periods that coincide with goshawk breeding rather than dispersal. The student will rigorously evaluate the relative contributions of forest management, survival outside managed plantations and disturbance to the dynamics and future viability of the UK goshawk population, providing evidence to shape landscape-scale conservation policy. The project will thereby train a new scientist in state-of-the-art quantitative analytical approaches to shed light on the trade-offs that unavoidably arise between conservation and economic activities and the dynamic of a protected species in heterogeneous landscapes.