Using episodic future thinking to improve climate decision making and action in organisations

根据2022年《泰晤士报》的一项调查，英国66%的小企业从未寻求过如何减少碳足迹的信息。对气候变化参与不足的一个原因是心理距离。众所周知，时间上遥远和不确定的事件在价值上被认为不那么极端，因此不完全包括在企业决策中。最近的一项荟萃分析（Rösch等人，2022）表明，对未来可能经历的心理模拟（称为情景未来思维或EFT）减少了货币和健康相关选择的折扣。此外，Lee等人（2020年）证明，参与EFT会增加与气候相关的风险认知，并随后倾向于参与环保行为。与其他更抽象的未来思维形式相比，EFT能突出具体的心理表征，从而使难以捉摸的未来变得更加有形。EFT可用于设想积极的未来（如实施缓解行动所带来的好处）或消极的未来（如与未缓解的气候变化相关的成本）。 该研究的目的该学生将建立在现有的工作进行作为GAIA和CAST中心的一部分，都在CU的心理学学院，对组织如何决策和建立变革，以实现低碳转型。研究问题和方法将被确定和塑造，以审查利益攸关方如何设想未来及其在气候变化方面塑造未来的能力。这将用于确定电子资金筹措对企业承诺和实施可持续做法的影响。心理学院和K夏普有限公司之间的合作将确保研究具有相关性，并直接传播到位于威尔士的企业，同时保持其方法和理论的完整性。可能的方法和设计该项目将采取多阶段的方法，使用社会/环境和认知心理学的方法。学生的第一年将用于范围EFT的适用性，作为组织决策和行动的推动力，以及制定文献综述，以完善思维及其在气候人体工程学中的应用。这将用于开发方法，以测试基于EFT的干预措施的有效性，基于学生群体进行试点研究，并适当改进干预措施。第二年将看到干预措施在目标群体中的应用，这将侧重于小企业，因为它们可能需要比大企业更多的支持和指导。这将需要数据捕获和动态可视化。第三年将设法对照目前的办法评价使用电子资金筹措的利弊，以期确定它将与之合作的其他适当的利益攸关方群体，并调整电子资金筹措办法，以便与这些群体合作。 该项目寻求快速应用，因此将在整个项目期间寻求与关键利益攸关方的接触，以确保可以利用该项目。这些利益相关者包括（但不限于）地方政府、威尔士政府、小企业联合会和威尔士航空航天局。

Background and rationaleAccording to a 2022 Times survey, 66% of small businesses in the UK never sought information on how to reduce their carbon footprint. One reason for poor engagement with climate change is psychological distance. It is well established that temporally distant and uncertain events are perceived as less extreme in value, and are therefore not fully included in businesses decision making. A recent meta-analysis (Rösch et al., 2022) showed that mental simulations of likely future experience (known as Episodic Future Thinking or EFT) reduce discounting in monetary as well as health-related choices. In addition, Lee at al. (2020) demonstrated that engagement in EFT increases climate related risk-perception and subsequent tendencies to engage in pro-environmental behaviour. In contrast to other, more abstract forms of future thinking, EFT elicits concrete mental representations, and thus makes an otherwise elusive future more tangible. EFT can be used to imagine positive (e.g. benefits derived from having implemented mitigative action) or negative futures (e.g. costs associated with unmitigated climate change). Aim of the researchThe studentship will build on existing work conducted as part of the GAIA and CAST centres, both based at CU's School of Psychology, on how organisations make decisions and establish change to achieve a low-carbon transformation. Research questions and methodologies will be identified and shaped to examine how stakeholders conceive the future and their capacity to shape it with regards to climate change. This will be used to determine what influence EFT has on businesses commitment to and implementation of sustainable practices. The collaboration between the School of Psychology and K Sharp Ltd will ensure the research has relevance and is directly disseminated to businesses located in Wales, while maintaining its methodological and theoretical integrity. Possible methods and designThe project will take a multi-stage approach, using methods from both social/environmental and cognitive psychology. The first year of the studentship will be used to scope the applicability of EFT as a nudge for organisational decision-making and action as well as develop a literature review to refine the thinking and its application to climate ergonomics. This will be used to then develop methodology that will test the efficacy of an EFT based intervention, run a pilot study based on student population and refine the intervention appropriately. Year two will see the application of the intervention on the target cohort, this will focus on small businesses because they potentially need more support and guidance than large businesses. This will require data capture and dynamic visualisation. Year three will seek to evaluate the advantages/disadvantages of EFT use against current approaches with a view to determining other suitable stakeholder groups that it would work with and adapt the EFT approach to work with those groups. This project seeks rapid application, and therefore engagement with key stakeholders throughout the project will be sought to ensure it can be exploited. These stakeholders include (but are not restricted to) Local Government, Welsh Government, Federation of Small Business and Aerospace Wales.