Credit risk, liquidity risk and the Quantity Theory of Money.

我的研究目的是解释货币供应和通胀之间的联系，2008年金融危机后，通胀经历了重大的结构性变化。危机后，英国央行、美联储、欧洲央行等主要央行纷纷实施量化宽松，大幅增加商业银行准备金账户。英国的货币供应量(M0)在2008-2009年增长了两倍，到2015年增长了六倍多。根据货币数量理论，这应该会导致恶性通货膨胀。然而，由于商业银行货币传导的变化，英国通胀率在2020年前一直保持在目标水平(低于3%)。为了解释货币供应对通胀的影响，我们需要研究由英国央行控制的外汇储备增长与用于经济交易的货币之间的关系。这些资金包括在部分准备金银行体系内创建的存款。只有在银行使用外汇储备并向实体经济提供信贷的情况下，扩大外汇储备才是有效的。我打算揭示影响这一过程的因素。首先，研究信用风险和流动性风险对货币传导的影响。在风险较高的环境中运营的银行更不愿向家庭和企业提供贷款，这减缓了货币传导。笔者期望通过实证研究为这一理论找到定量的支持。然后，我将使用动态随机一般均衡框架对不同的宏观审慎政策进行评估。

The objective of my research is to explain the connection between money supply and inflation, which underwent a significant structural change after the 2008 financial crisis. Following the crisis, the BoE, FED, ECB, and other major central banks implemented Quantitative Easing and significantly increased the reserve accounts of commercial banks. The supply of money (M0) in the UK tripled in 2008-2009 and increased by more than six times by 2015. According to the Quantity Theory of Money, this should lead to hyperinflation. However, UK inflation stayed within the target level (below 3%) until 2020 due to a change in monetary transmission performed by commercial banks. To explain the effect of money supply on inflation, we need to study the relationship between the growth of reserves, controlled by the Bank of England, and the money used for economic transactions. Those funds include deposits created within the fractional-reserve banking system. The reserve expansion is only efficient if banks use them and provide credit to the real economy. I intend to uncover the factors that influence this process. First, I will study the effect of credit and liquidity risks on monetary transmission. Banks operating in a riskier environment are more reluctant to provide loans to households and businesses, which slows down monetary transmission. I expect to find quantitative support for this theory by conducting empirical research. Then, I will evaluate different macroprudential policies using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework