Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Mosquito-Borne Diseases

该项目将重点建立高度入侵性的白纹伊蚊和埃及伊蚊种群动态模型，以及它们的人类疾病，如登革热、基孔肯雅热和寨卡病毒。建模方法将是使用环境驱动的阶段结构延迟微分方程模型系统（见参考文献和进一步阅读）来预测全球范围内当前和未来的疾病风险。这些模型将根据广泛的数据集进行拟合和验证，并覆盖有关人口、旅游和贸易途径以及疾病干预措施的数据。这些模型将由一系列气候变化模型驱动，以预测未来的风险。使用交互式可视化，模型输出将通过主要利益相关者和社区参与传播

This project will focus on modelling the population dynamics of the highly invasive mosquito species Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti, and their human diseases such as Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika. The modelling approach will be to use systems of environmentally driven stage-structured delayed differential equation models (see References & Further Reading) to predict current and future disease risk at a global scale. The models will be fitted and validated against a broad range of datasets and overlaid with data on human populations, tourism and trade pathways, and disease interventions. The models will be driven by an ensemble of climate change models to predict future risk. Using interactive visualisations, model outputs will be disseminated through key stakeholder and community engagement