CEH_Open CLimate IMpacts modelling framework (OpenCLIM)

CEH_Open CLimate IMpacts 建模框架 (OpenCLIM)

• 批准号: NE/T013915/1
• 负责人: Richard Pywell
• 金额: $ 24.85万
• 依托单位: UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT013915%2F1
• 关键词: CEH_Open; CLimate; IMpacts; modelling; framework

Climate change is one of the major threats of the 21st Century both nationally and globally. This requires a joint response of mitigation and adaptation as enshrined in the UK Climate Change Act, which mandates a Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) every five years and a quinquennial National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to adapt to the climate risks that are identified. Assessing climate risks and adaptation in a consistent manner is scientifically challenging as climate change is manifest in multiple ways (rising temperature and sea level, changing precipitation, etc.) and impacts every human and natural system. Further there are direct and indirect impacts as these effects cascade and interact with other sectors which are often changing due to non-climate processes. Any proposed adaptations need to be assessed in a similar manner including direct and indirect effects and unintended consequences. Earlier UK climate assessments did not fully address this challenge relying in part on expert synthesis for integration, potentially leading to an over focus on direct consequences and leading to inconsistencies between sectors and between adaptation options.The OpenCLIM project is designed to support UK assessment of climate risks and adaptation needs, and future CCRAs and NAPs in particular, by developing and applying a first UK integrated assessment for climate impacts and adaptation. First and foremost we aim to develop an open, innovative and flexible platform to provide an improved capacity for the next CCRA and NAP. Our model will consider UK-wide climate impacts and adaptation in biodiversity, agriculture, infrastructure and urban areas, considering the impacts of flooding, heat stress and changing temperature and precipitation. It will also consider two detailed case studies: (1) an urban analysis of Glasgow and environs (the Clyde); and (2) a more rural analysis of the Norfolk Broads and environs. These will serve as a demonstration and validation exercise to inform the national analysis. Secondly, we will also design an open-access platform with a strong legacy which is flexible to allow further development of the integrated model beyond this funding. We aspire to develop a community model where new and improved models could be easily incorporated and innovative science and new policy questions investigated. Hence future CCRAs and NAPs could be linked to a living science process, drawing on evolving understanding and stakeholder needs. This would include improving knowledge in established sectors and areas, and developing better sectoral linkages and interactions, as well as adding new models of less established sectors and areas as they emerge, including the ability to reframe and pose new questions. Recognising the significant challenge of achieving this second goal, our model will be developed within the UKCIRC DAFNI (Data & Analytics Facility for National Infrastructure) facility for High Performance Computing.The platform will be designed to take the UKCP18 and new UK socioeconomic scenarios to ensure the best scientific inputs. The approach will be explicitly spatial and allow highlighting of geographical hotspot areas and the prioritisation of risks in a systematic and consistent manner including tabulation and mapping of outputs. The models that are included are all physically-based (rather than emulators or rules-of-thumb) and this will enable the generation of new research insights, including climatic risks in the UK. Importantly, the use of physically-based models will allow credible simulation of conditions that have not been previously observed and improve confidence in the results compared to earlier analyses.

气候变化是21世纪世纪国家和全球的主要威胁之一。这需要联合应对缓解和适应，正如英国《气候变化法》所规定的那样，该法案要求每五年进行一次气候变化风险评估（CCRA），并制定五年一次的国家适应计划（NAP），以适应已确定的气候风险。以一致的方式评估气候风险和适应在科学上具有挑战性，因为气候变化以多种方式表现出来（温度和海平面上升，降水量变化等）。影响着每一个人类和自然系统。此外，还存在直接和间接的影响，因为这些影响会级联并与经常因非气候过程而发生变化的其他部门相互作用。任何拟议的调整都需要以类似的方式进行评估，包括直接和间接影响以及意外后果。早期的联合王国气候评估没有完全解决这一挑战，部分依赖于专家综合集成，可能导致过度关注直接后果，并导致部门之间和适应方案之间的不一致。OpenCLIM项目旨在支持联合王国评估气候风险和适应需求，特别是未来的CCRA和NAP。制定和应用联合王国第一个气候影响和适应综合评估。首先，我们的目标是开发一个开放，创新和灵活的平台，为下一个CCRA和NAP提供更好的能力。我们的模型将考虑英国范围内的气候影响和生物多样性，农业，基础设施和城市地区的适应，考虑洪水，热应力以及温度和降水变化的影响。它还将考虑两个详细的案例研究：（1）对格拉斯哥和周边地区（克莱德）的城市分析;（2）对诺福克布罗德和周边地区的农村分析。这些将作为示范和验证活动，为国家分析提供信息。其次，我们还将设计一个具有强大传统的开放式访问平台，该平台具有灵活性，可以在此资金之外进一步开发集成模型。我们渴望开发一种社区模式，在这种模式中，新的和改进的模式可以很容易地被纳入，创新的科学和新的政策问题可以被调查。因此，未来的共同国家能力评估和国家行动方案可与活科学进程联系起来，借鉴不断发展的理解和利益攸关方的需求。这将包括增进对既定部门和领域的了解，发展更好的部门联系和互动，以及在不太成熟的部门和领域出现新的模式时增加新的模式，包括重新构建和提出新问题的能力。认识到实现第二个目标的重大挑战，我们的模型将在UKCIRC DAFNI（国家基础设施数据和分析设施）高性能计算设施内开发。该平台将采用UKCP 18和新的英国社会经济情景，以确保最佳的科学投入。这一方法将是明确的空间性方法，允许突出地理热点地区，并以系统和一致的方式对风险进行优先排序，包括对产出进行制表和绘图。所包含的模型都是基于物理的（而不是模拟器或经验法则），这将有助于产生新的研究见解，包括英国的气候风险。重要的是，使用基于物理的模型将允许对以前未观察到的条件进行可信的模拟，并与早期分析相比提高结果的置信度。

项目成果

Resilience of UK crop yields to changing climate extremes

英国农作物产量对极端气候变化的抵御能力

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-2021-92
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Slater L