Glaciology and climate modelling

该项目将调查南极洲表面融化的未来趋势，通过利用尖端的紧急保障措施探索这种趋势的驱动因素和影响。迄今为止的研究表明，如果南极冰盖（AIS）完全融化，它有可能导致全球海平面上升58米（Morlighem等人，2020年）。AIS周边沿着四分之三的冰架，虽然这些冰架的冰山崩解或冰架崩塌不会直接导致海平面上升，但它们在支撑AIS的冰川流动方面发挥着关键作用，因此必须减少其未来的不确定性，以准确预测全球海平面上升（Mitcham等人，2022).卫星观测揭示了南极冰架最近的不稳定性和崩解事件，表明该地区正在发生变化（Fyke等人，2018年）。目前，由海洋温度上升驱动的融化是冰架不稳定性的主要驱动力（Holland等人，2008年）。然而，随着全球气温持续升高，预计表面融化将在冰架不稳定性中发挥越来越重要的作用，这是由表面融水引起的不稳定性和水力破裂驱动的，可能会因表面热反馈而加剧（Banwell等人，2023;吉尔伯特和基特尔，2021）。最近在紧急状态监测方面取得的进展为加强对南极洲未来趋势的模拟提供了一个有希望的途径，有能力进行长期模拟，时间可延长到2500年及以后，以捕捉影响该地区表面空气温度和表面融化的关键大气过程的复杂动态。UKESM结合了一个交互耦合的冰盖模型，该模型为加强对大气-冰冻圈相互作用和反馈的研究提供了潜力（Smith等人，2021).可靠地预测南极洲表面融化的未来趋势需要在ESM模型中准确地表示该地区的关键大气环流特征，例如南方环形模式（SAM），绕极西风和阿蒙森海低压（ASL）（Hosking等人，2016; Saunderson等人，2024年）。有必要更好地了解这些关键的大气环流特征及其如何影响表面融化动力学，以澄清哪些冰架在未来容易发生不稳定和快速变化。

This project will investigate the future trends in surface melt in Antarctica, exploring the drivers and impacts of such trends through the utilization of cutting-edge ESMs. Research to date indicates that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has the potential to contribute up to 58 m to global sea level rise if it were to melt entirely (Morlighem et al., 2020). The AIS is fringed by ice shelves along three-quarters of its perimeter and while iceberg calving from these shelves or ice shelf collapse do not directly contribute to sea level rise, they play a critical role in buttressing glacier flow from the AIS, making it essential to reduce uncertainties surrounding their future to predict global sea level rise accurately (Mitcham et al., 2022).Satellite observations have revealed recent instabilities and calving events in the Antarctic ice shelves, signalling ongoing changes in the region (Fyke et al., 2018). Currently, melting driven by rising ocean temperatures stands as the primary driver of ice shelf instability (Holland et al., 2008). However, as global temperatures continue to increase, surface melting is expected to play an increasingly significant role in ice shelf instability, driven by surface meltwater-induced instability and hydro fracture, potentially exacerbated by surface albedo feedbacks (Banwell et al., 2023; Gilbert & Kittel, 2021). Recent advances in ESMs offer a promising avenue for enhanced simulations of future trends over Antarctica, with capability of conducting long-term simulations extending to 2500 and beyond to capture the complex dynamics of key atmospheric processes that influence surface air temperature and, consequently, surface melting in the region. The UKESM incorporates an interactively coupled ice sheet model which provides potential for enhanced investigation of atmosphere-cryosphere interactions and feedbacks (Smith et al., 2021).Reliably predicting the future trends of surface melt in Antarctica requires the accurate representation in ESM models of key atmospheric circulation features in the region, such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the circumpolar westerly winds, and the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) (Hosking et al., 2016; Saunderson et al., 2024). Improved understanding of these key atmospheric circulation features and how they impact surface melting dynamics is necessary to clarify which ice shelves are susceptible to instability and rapid changes in the future.