The Development of a Local Urban Climate Model and its Application to the Intelligent Development of Cities (LUCID)

该项目将开发世界领先的方法来计算城市环境中的当地温度和空气质量。然后将探讨气候变化对能源使用的影响和对健康的后果。将详细审议对城市规划的影响。应用于城市地区的这种方法将大大有助于在规划过程中产生指导，这种建模被认为是必不可少的估计和预测从目前不合适的做法过渡到更可持续的城市社区。目前对英国的预测是更长，更热的夏天和更潮湿，多风的冬天，到21世纪80年代，东南部变暖2.5摄氏度到4摄氏度。这种幅度的变化，特别是在夏季，将导致建筑物内过热的普遍性大大增加。预计夏季湿度也会增加，限制了通过自然通风冷却建筑物的能力。夏季气温超过30摄氏度的频率将增加，相关的城市热岛效应将导致频繁的极端温度，特别是在大城市地区。适应和改善这些危险的条件-例如，最近在芝加哥、2001年在希腊和2003年在法国都发生了致命的影响-将需要适当的城市规划、住房和交通政策。但在制定这些政策之前，需要量化工具来确定和量化减缓和适应战略的有效性，死亡率上升显然是气温上升的一个极端后果。然而，很明显，人们感到“不舒服”的时间比例有可能增加。这就有可能大量增加机械冷却系统的使用，从而增加能源使用，特别是在城市地区。与城市热岛效应相关的更高温度预计会使情况变得更糟。特别是，建筑物被动冷却的一种策略是通过在白天将热量储存在建筑结构内，并在夜间通过通风进行冷却。但这种方法依赖于夜间温度足够低。城市热岛通常在夜间最为明显，因此了解这种方法是否仍然可行是很重要的。建筑物既响应当地的小气候，也对当地的小气候做出贡献。有效的建筑设计需要了解这种小气候，并采取应对措施。未来的道路是什么？目前，已有方法来估计城市地区过高温度的广泛程度（例如，Oke，1987），并且已经有一些测量活动（例如，Graves等人，2001年; Wilby 2003），然而，没有建立实用的方法或工具来评估地方规划决策的影响（土地用途、建筑物布局方向和设计、休憩用地或公园的大小）对当地气候的细微影响。然后，该项目将开发和测试用于计算城市环境中局部气候的最先进方法。然后将探讨对内部建筑环境、能源使用的影响以及对健康的后果。这项建议将使气象学家、建筑科学家、城市模型制作者、规划者、城市和建筑设计者以及流行病学家组成一个新的联合体，研究城市如何适应不断变化的气候。该提案有效地将两个联盟/模型开发者和模型用户/以最一致的方式联合起来。

This project will develop world leading methods for calculating local temperature and air quality in the urban environment. The impact on energy use and the consequences for health of a changing climate will then be explored. The implications for urban planning will be considered in detail. Such methods applied to urban areas would contribute greatly to the generation of guidance in planning process and such modelling is seen as essential to estimate and predict the transition from the present unsuitable practices to more sustainable urban communitiesThere is overwhelming consensus that the climate is warming and an increasing recognition that decisions made now need to be informed by how the local climate will change. Current projections for the UK are for longer, hotter summers and wetter, windier winters, with the South-East warming by between 2.5oC and 4 oC by the 2080s. A change of this magnitude, particularly in summer will lead to much increased prevalence of overheating inside buildings. Humidity is also predicted to increase during the summers limiting the ability to cool buildings through natural ventilation. The frequency of summer days when there are very warm temperatures above 30oC will increase and associated urban heat island effects will lead to frequent extreme temperatures especially in large urban areas. Adapting to and ameliorating such dangerous conditions, whose deadly affects have recently been experienced, for instance in Chicago in 1995, in Greece in 2001 and in France in 2003, will require appropriate policies of urban planning, housing and transport. But before these policies can be developed, quantitative tools are required to identify and quantify the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation strategies.Increased mortality clearly represents an extreme consequence of rising temperatures. However, it is clear that the proportion of the time that people will feel 'uncomfortable' has the potential to increase. This raises the possibility of a large increase in the use of mechanical cooling systems and a consequent rise in energy use, particularly in urban areas. Higher temperatures associated with the urban heat island are expected to make things worse. In particular, one strategy for passive cooling of buildings is through storing heat within the building fabric during the day and cooling through ventilation at night. But this method relies on the night time temperatures being sufficiently low. The urban heat island is typically most pronounced at night, and so it is important to know whether or not this method remains viable. Buildings both respond to and contribute to the local microclimate. Effective building design requires a knowledge of, and ways of dealing with, this microclimate. What is the way ahead? Currently, methods exist to estimate the broad magnitude of excess temperatures in urban areas (e.g. Oke, 1987), and there have been some measurement campaigns (e.g. Graves et al 2001; Wilby 2003), however there are no established practical methods or tools for assessing the impact of local planning decisions (land use, building-layout orientation and design, size of open spaces or parks) on the fine details of the local climate. This project then will develop and test state-of-the-art methods for calculating local climate in the urban environment. The impact on the internal built environment, energy use and the consequences for health will then be explored. The implications for urban planning will be considered in detail.This proposal brings together a new consortium of meteorologists, building scientists, urban modellers, planners, urban and building designers and epidemiologists to research how cities can adapt to a changing climate. The proposal effectively unites two consortia / model developers and model users / in a most coherent manner.