COincident Probabilistic climate change weather data for a Sustainable built Environment (COPSE)

该项目将为未来的气候变化数据开发合理的方法，供建筑设计师用于新建筑和翻新，这些建筑可能持续到本世纪末。主要的申请成果将是一份技术备忘录（TM）草案，供特许建筑装备工程师学会（CIBSE）使用，适用于执业设计师。这将得到广泛的案例研究的支持，以验证新的天气数据设计方法，并在稍后描述的研究任务中使用。与气候和建筑环境的不同情景相关的“故事线”将被开发，以及建筑设计中的风险水平，使设计师能够自信地使用天气数据。TM将为CIBSE在其新的设计指南中选择和使用未来数据提供一致的方法，该指南是建筑设计师及其服务使用的基础文件，也是政府建筑法规的支持文件。该项目的基础将是英国气候影响计划（UKCIP）将于2008年发布的未来情景（UKCIP08），从中可以得出本世纪不同天气结果的概率。学术产出将包括对新建筑和翻新建筑的主动和被动系统以及设计的碳减排潜力的广泛评估。他们将利用电脑模拟建筑和系统的案例研究，采用新的概率天气数据。这些评估将为设计师和政策制定者提供指导方针，以帮助减少建筑物温室气体（ghg）的增长，目前这些温室气体占英国排放量的50%左右。其他学术成果将提供理论基础，以建议的一致的基于个人电脑和人工设计方法，以一致的、概率的未来天气数据参数，如太阳辐射、气温、风速和风向。众所周知，太阳辐射和空气温度在不同的时间和不同的日子有峰值，但目前的设计方法必须将它们分开，因此经常出现过度设计。相关的学术成果将是一个理论基础，以支持拟议的新设计参考年（DRY）的选择，这将促进建筑设计（包括被动和主动加热和冷却系统以及舒适性评估）在个人电脑上的模拟。DRY将取代目前令人不满意的设计夏季年。HadRM3和UKCIP02模型中没有详细介绍的太阳辐射数据，将根据设计人员的要求进行开发。同样，风的数据（因为风驱动自然通风，所以包括进来是至关重要的），尽管置信度会更低。降雨的持续时间和数量在建筑设计过程中也很重要，因为排水和雨水渗透破坏，设计师的要求将再次被审查。本指南中简要提到的“城市热岛”效应（城市地区通常比附近的农村地区更热）将被纳入新的数据，在SCORCHIO工作的基础上发展，以提供更真实的城市天气数据。本地修改或缩小规模也将应用于为英国其他站点生成数据。这将使新指南涵盖的范围超过目前由曼彻斯特为CIBSE开发数据的14个站点。为了确保新的概率输出对专业人员有用，并反映设计中的最佳实践，将通过形成一个利益相关者小组，包括相应成员，包括CIBSE，建筑师，软件公司和房屋建筑商，将有强有力的利益相关者参与。政策利益将通过社区和地方政府部门、DEFRA及其承包商（如BRE）达成。这将与曼彻斯特领导的EPSRC SCORCHIO城市热岛和气候变化项目、UKCIP和廷德尔中心联系起来。

This project will develop sound methods for future climate change data for building designers to use for new buildings and refurbishments that could last to the end of this century. The principal application output will be a draft Technical Memorandum (TM) for the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, CIBSE, suitable for practising designers. This will be supported by extensive case studies to validate the new weather data design methodology and be used in research tasks described later. 'Story lines' relevant to different scenarios for the climate and built environment will be developed as well as risk levels in building design to enable designers to use the weather data with confidence. The TM will provide CIBSE with a consistent methodology for the selection and use of future data for its new Design Guide, a fundamental document used by designers of buildings and their services and a supporting document for the Government's Building Regulations. The basis for this project will be the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) future scenarios to be published in 2008 (UKCIP08) from which may be derived probabilities of different weather outcomes over this century. Academic outputs will include an extensive assessment of the carbon reduction potential of active and passive systems and designs for new and refurbished buildings. They will utilise case studies with PC simulation of the building and systems, employing the new probabilistic weather data. These assessments will provide designers and policy makers with guidelines to help reduce the growth in greenhouse gases (GHGs) from buildings, which at present contribute about 50% of the UK emissions. Other academic outputs will provide the theoretical basis underlying the proposed consistent PC-based and manual design methodology with coincident, probabilistic future weather data parameters such as solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and direction. It is known that solar radiation and air temperature have peak values at different times and on different days but current design methods do necessarily separate them so that over-design often occurs. A related academic output will be a theory underpinning the selection of the proposed new Design Reference Year (DRY) which will facilitate building design (including passive and active heating and cooling systems and comfort assessment) with simulation on a PC. The DRY will replace the currently unsatisfactory Design Summer Year. Solar radiation data, not covered in detail in the HadRM3 and UKCIP02 models, will be developed to satisfy designers' requirements. Likewise wind data (crucial to include since wind drives natural ventilation) although the confidence level will be lower. Rainfall duration and quantity are also important in the building design process because of drainage and rain penetration damage and designers' requirements will again be reviewed.'Urban heat island' effects (urban areas are often hotter than the nearby rural areas), briefly mentioned in the present Guide, will be incorporated in the new data, developing on SCORCHIO work to provide more realistic urban weather data. Local modification or downscaling will also be applied to generate data for other sites in the UK. This will enable the new Guide to cover more than the current 14 sites for which data were developed by Manchester for CIBSE.To ensure that the new, probabilistic outputs will be useful to professionals, and to reflect best practice in design, there will be strong stakeholder involvement through the formation of a Stakeholders Group, including Corresponding Members, which will include CIBSE, architects and software houses and housebuilders. Policy interests will be reached via the Department for Communities and Local Government, and DEFRA and their contractors, such as BRE. There will be links to the Manchester-led EPSRC SCORCHIO urban heat island and climate change project, UKCIP and the Tyndall Centre.