Decision support for building adaptation in a low-carbon climate change future

建筑物必须为其使用者提供舒适的内部环境，但它们的表现取决于它们所暴露的天气。英国的气候已经在变化，这将需要不同的建筑设计方法。然而，未来的气候不能完全确定地预测，这反映在根据英国气候影响方案(UKCIP08)正在制定的未来气候情景中，这些情景将以概率形式呈现。这意味着信息将以温度大于(值)的5%的概率的形式给出。这种不确定性对建筑设计师来说并不熟悉，他们习惯于接受固定的极端夏季或冬季条件，并设计具有足够容量的冷却、通风和供暖系统来应对这些设计条件。因此，存在建筑可能无法按设计发挥作用的风险，要么是因为建筑系统不能适应不断变化的气候，要么是因为系统被过度指定以应对没有发生的气候情景。未来的建筑性能还受到将二氧化碳排放降至最低的需要的限制，因此简单地建立产能过剩是不合适的，也不是可持续的，例如通过在所有地方提供空调来应对未来的夏季天气。同样，高度隔热和密封良好的低能耗建筑可能会因为居住者和他们使用的设备获得的热量而过热。这些因素可能会与目前构思建筑物和进行设计的方式不同，因为设计师在选择设计标准时需要考虑特定外部条件的出现频率。这个拟议的项目旨在开发一种方法，将这些概率UKCIP08气候情景与建筑服务工程师社区的要求联系起来。它将产生一种实用的方法，在现有和新建筑中设计经济和环保的供暖、通风和空调系统。该方法将基于概率数据，但不要求用户理解复杂的统计理论。该项目有几个相互关联的部分。UKCIP08数据将进行统计转换，以给出一套简单的设计条件，供从业人员使用。将制定一系列标准，以确定在人体舒适度和系统提供方面可接受的建筑性能水平。一系列案例研究的性能将根据这些标准的概率气候情景进行模拟。将收集高级建筑用户群体的经验，以便量化需要了解的建筑性能和风险的可接受性，以便建筑可以设计或改造以适应不断变化的英国气候。结果将是英国不同地点的一组案例研究建筑，设计师可以呼吁这些建筑来支持他们的决定。

Buildings must provide a comfortable internal environment for their users but how they perform depends on the weather to which they are exposed. The UK climate is already changing and this will demand different approaches to the way buildings are designed. However, the climate of the future cannot be predicted with complete certainty and this is reflected in the future climate scenarios being developed under the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP08), which are to be presented in probabilistic terms. This means that the information will be given in the form There is a 5% probability that the temperature will be greater than (value) . This uncertainty is unfamiliar for building designers, who are used to taking fixed extreme summer or winter conditions and designing cooling, ventilation and heating systems of sufficient capacity to cope with these design conditions. Consequently, there is a risk that buildings may not perform as designed, either because the building systems cannot adapt to the changing climate or because systems are over specified to deal with a climate scenario that does not happen. Future building performance is additionally constrained by the need to minimise CO2 emissions, so it is not appropriate or sustainable to simply build in over-capacity, for example by providing air-conditioning everywhere to cope with future summer weather. Equally, highly insulated and well sealed low-energy buildings may overheat as a result of the heat gained from the occupants and the equipment they use. These factors are likely to see a departure from the current way in which buildings are conceived and designs carried out as designers will need to take account of the frequency of occurrence of particular external conditions in selecting design criteria. This proposed project aims to develop a method of linking these probabilistic UKCIP08 climate scenarios to the requirements of the community of building services engineers. It will produce a practical method of designing economic and environmentally friendly heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems in both existing and new buildings. The method will be based on probabilistic data but will not require the user to understand sophisticated statistical theory.The project has several interlinked parts. The UKCIP08 data will be transformed statistically to give a set of simple design conditions which can be used by practitioners. A series of criteria will be developed to identify acceptable levels of building performance in the field of human comfort and systems provision. The performance of a series of case studies will be simulated from the probabilistic climate scenarios against these criteria. The experience of a senior building user group will be collected in order to quantify what needs to be known about building performance and the acceptability of risk so that buildings can be designed or adapted to accommodate the changing UK climate. The outcome will be a set of case study buildings in various UK locations which designers can call upon to support their decisions.