Understanding uncertainty in simulations of THC-related rapid climate change.

用于预测下个世纪由温室气体和其他排放引起的气候变化的主要工具是大气和海洋的详细耦合三维模型。然而，这些模型在气候变化的一些重要方面给出了截然不同的结果，从而限制了我们做出实际有用的预测的能力。其中一个方面是大西洋温盐环流可能发生的变化，通常被称为墨西哥湾流。这种环流将大量热量向北输送。如果它减弱，特别是欧洲未来的变暖可能会减少，甚至可能逆转。模型结果的传播基本上反映了目前对大尺度气候系统如何运行的理解的局限性。该项目的目的是通过对一系列气候模型模拟的反应进行比较，确定这种不确定性最重要的方面。这些结果旨在通过将注意力集中在需要进一步的理论或观测研究的方面来帮助改进模型。

The main tools that are used for making projections of climate change in the coming century resulting from greenhouse-gas and other emissions are detailed coupled three-dimensional models of the atmosphere and ocean. However, such models give widely different results for some important aspects of climate change, thus limiting our ability to make practically useful projections. One such aspect is changes that may happen in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation, often referred to as the Gulf Stream. This circulation transports a great deal of heat northwards. If it weakened, future warming in Europe in particular could be reduced or possibly reversed. The spread of model results basically reflects limitations in current understanding of how the large-scale climate system operates. The aim of this project is to identify which are the most important aspects of that uncertainty by making comparisons of the responses simulated by a range of climate models. The results are intended to help improve the models by focusing attention on the aspects which require further theoretical or observational study.