Ensemble Prediction of Inundation Risk and Uncertainty arising from Scour (EPIRUS)

海平面上升现在被认为是对我们沿海城镇的一个真实的威胁。此外，全球气候变化可能导致风暴的频率和严重程度增加。因此，英国面临海上洪水风险的资产价值大幅增加。英国目前的沿海防洪设施通常设计用于抵御重现期为50 - 100年的风暴事件，现在可能不足以保护受到威胁的沿海地区。为了改进未来海岸防御的设计，需要更好地了解大气、海洋和海底之间的联系，以及更好地量化预测中固有的不确定性。普利茅斯大学、布里斯托大学和利物浦大学之间的这项联合研究提案旨在开发一个强大而综合的"云到海岸"建模框架，该框架将包括大气、海洋和沿海洪水和侵蚀之间的复杂相互作用，以便准确预测和评估沿海地区遭受极端事件（如严重风暴）的洪水风险。该项目将利用各种现有的经过验证的计算机程序以及必要的进一步发展，提供关于严重风暴下的气象条件、相关的浪涌和波浪条件以及风和波浪从近海到海岸线附近地区的详细变化的信息，以便预测由于波浪漫顶和冲刷造成的沿海洪水和侵蚀。该项目的主要工作包括：1）集成预报大气压力和风场的大尺度高分辨率天气模式、近海波浪向近岸转化的区域和局地尺度过程模式以及预报海防建筑物附近的越浪和冲刷的局部海岸模式; 2）利用大量的现场数据验证集成模式系统;以及3）通过创建未来可能的风暴事件的集合，应用模拟系统来调查不确定性。该项目的主要产出将是一个完善和有效的模型系统，可用作沿海工程师和沿海地区管理人员评估沿海地区可能的洪水风险的有用工具。

Sea level rise is now acknowledged as a real threat to our coastal towns and cities. In addition, global climate changes may lead to increasing frequency and severity of storms. As a result the value of the UK's assets at risk from flooding by the sea have significantly increased. The current UK coastal flood defences, which have typically been designed to withstand storm events with a return period of 50-100 years, may now be inadequate to protect the coastal areas under threat. To improve the design of future coastal defences requires a better understanding of the linkages between atmosphere, ocean and seabed; as well as improved quantification of the inherent uncertainties in the predictions. This joint research proposal between the Universities of Plymouth, Bristol and Liverpool, aims to develop a robust and integrated 'Cloud-to-Coast' modelling framework which will include the complex interactions between atmosphere, ocean and coastal flood and erosion, so that the flood risk in the coastal areas from the extreme events, such as severe storms, can be accurately predicted and assessed. The project will use various existing proven computer programmes together with necessary further developments to provide information on meteorological conditions under severe storms, the associated surge and wave conditions, as well as detailed transformation of wind and waves from the offshore to areas close to shoreline in order to predict coastal flood and erosion due to wave overtopping and scour. The main work of the project includes: 1) integration of the large-scale high-resolution weather models for predicting the atmospheric pressure and wind field, the regional and local scale process models for wave transformation from offshore to nearshore, and the local coastal models for predicting wave overtopping and scour near the coastal defence structures; 2) validation of the integrated modelling system with extensive field datasets; and 3) application of the modelling system to investigate uncertainties by creating ensembles of possible future storm events. The major output of the project will be a well-developed and validated modelling system which can be used as a useful tool for coastal engineers and coastal zone managers to assess the possible flood risk in coastal areas.