Exploitation of HiGEM as a tool for understanding decadal climate variability and for predicting the climate of the next few decades.

地球气候正在变化这一事实现在已被广泛接受，而这一事实的后果才刚刚开始被理解。不断变化的气候将产生广泛的影响，例如对水资源、农业、生态系统和经济的影响。如果规划者要最大限度地减少这些影响的成本，他们需要有关区域和地方气候变化的详细信息，特别是在未来几十年内。提供这些信息对科学家来说是一个重大挑战。该提案将通过利用英国新的气候模型HiGEM来应对这一挑战，该模型提供了前所未有的空间细节。它将研究HiGEM模型预测的气候变化与提供较少细节的简单模型所建议的气候变化有何不同。它还将研究如何将最近变化的观测结果与气候模型结合使用，以获得尽可能好的预测。

The fact that Earth's climate is changing is now widely accepted; the consequences of this fact are only just beginning to be understood. The changing climate will have a very wide range of impacts - for example, on water resources, on agriculture, on ecosystems and economies. If planners are to minimise the costs of these impacts they require detailed information about how climate will change regionally and locally, especially over the next few decades. Providing this information is a major challenge to scientists. This proposal will address this challenge by making use of a new UK climate model, HiGEM, which provides unprecedented spatial detail. It will investigate how the changes in climate projected by the HiGEM model differ from those suggested by simpler models that provide less detail. It will also examine how observations of recent changes can be used in conjunction with climate models to obtain the best possible predictions.