Impact of the New Zealand Minimum Drinking Age on Context Specific Drinking Risks

描述(由申请人提供)：提高最低法定饮酒年龄(MLDA)已被证明可以减少美国年轻人的酒精使用和相关问题。作为一种政策工具，MLDA法律是有效的，易于实施和执行，尽管未成年青年仍然可以通过其他方式获得酒精，但总体上对社会有益。然而，在美国和其他国家，降低MLDA的经济和政治压力很大。这些压力导致新西兰的最低购买年龄(MPA)最近有所下降。支持这一变化的一个论点是，在缺乏社会控制的环境中，较高的MPA会导致未成年青年过度饮酒。据推测，较低的MPA使年轻人能够在社会控制的、更安全的饮酒环境(例如酒吧和餐馆)饮酒。这一论点的有效性是通过使用特定于具体情况的饮酒风险的数学模型和在1999年将MPA值从20岁降低到18岁之前和之后在新西兰进行的重复酒精调查的独特来源来检验的。重要的是，由于较低的Mpa的主要影响是拓宽年轻人可以饮酒的背景，较低的Mpa可能会影响饮酒风险，而不受饮酒水平的影响。模型、数据和拟议的统计分析将使我们能够：(1)衡量降低的MPA值对未成年青年、成年青年和成年饮酒者选择饮酒环境的影响，(2)评估与这些环境相关的风险对这些环境中的饮酒水平的反应程度(上下文特定的剂量-反应)，(3)估计降低的MPA值对酒精问题的累积影响及其在新西兰青少年和成年人饮酒环境中的分布，(4)检查MPA值变化后土著人口的特定饮酒风险。将测试八个具体假设，以确定降低的MPA值对饮酒模式的预期影响，以及新西兰一般人口和土著群体中的问题。该项目的短期目标是评估降低的MPA值对青少年饮酒的影响，以及新西兰酒精问题的具体风险。实现这一目标的公共卫生意义将是开发和应用衡量这些风险的新方法。由于这项研究将使用来自外国但可比较的英语国家的数据进行，因此研究结果将在一定范围内推广到美国的人口。这项研究将极大地促进制订适当的量化框架，用以评估减少多边开发活动的影响。因此，这项研究的长期目标和对公共卫生的意义将是促进科学基础，以此为基础，未来评估MLDA法律变化的影响。 公共卫生相关性：降低酒精的最低法定购买年龄将减少年轻人饮酒问题的论点，将使用首席调查员开发的量化模型和新西兰最近将最低合法购买年龄从20岁降至18岁前后多年的独特调查数据进行检验。这项研究将衡量MPA对饮酒环境选择的影响，评估在这些环境下与饮酒有关的风险，估计MPA变化对酒精问题的累积影响，并检查MPA变化后土著人口的风险。这项研究将极大地促进制订适当的量化框架，用以评估减少多边开发活动的影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Increases in the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) have been shown to reduce alcohol use and related problems among young people in the US. As a policy tool, MLDA laws are effective, easy to implement and enforce and, although underage youth can still obtain alcohol through other means, generally beneficial to society. Nevertheless, economic and political pressures to lower MLDAs are strong in the US and other countries. These pressures have led to a recent decrease in the minimum purchase age (MPA) in New Zealand. One argument in support of this change is that higher MPAs lead underage youth to drink excessively in environments with little social control. Presumably lower MPAs enable young people to drink in socially controlled, safer, drinking environments (e.g., bars and restaurants). The validity of this argument is tested using a mathematical model of context specific drinking risks and a unique source of repeated alcohol surveys conducted in New Zealand before and after a reduction in the MPA in 1999 from 20 to 18 years of age. Importantly, since the primary impact of a lower MPA is to broaden the contexts in which young people can drink, the lower MPA may affect drinking risks independent of drinking levels. The model, data, and proposed statistical analyses will enable us to: (1) Measure the impacts of lowered MPA on selection of drinking contexts among underage youth, of-age youth, and adult drinkers, (2) Assess the extent to which risks related to those contexts are responsive to drinking levels in those contexts (context specific dose-response), (3) Estimate the cumulative impact of the lowered MPA on alcohol problems and their distribution across drinking contexts among youth and adults in New Zealand, (4) Examine context specific drinking risks among indigenous populations after the MPA change. Eight specific hypotheses will be tested with regard to expected impacts of the lowered MPA on drinking patterns and problems in the general population and indigenous groups in New Zealand. The short-term goal of the project is to assess the impacts of the lowered MPA upon youth drinking and context specific risks for alcohol problems in New Zealand. The public health significance of achieving this goal will be the development and application of new methods for the measurement of these risks. Since the research will be conducted using data from a foreign but comparable English-speaking country, the results of the study will generalize, within limits, to populations in the US. The research will contribute substantively to the formulation of adequate quantitative frameworks with which to assess the impacts of reductions in MLDAs. Thus, the long-term goal and public health significance of this study will be to advance the scientific foundations upon which future evaluations of the impacts of changes in MLDA laws can be based. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The argument that reductions in the minimum legal purchase age (MPA) for alcohol will reduce drinking problems among young people will be tested using quantitative models developed by the Principal Investigator and unique survey data available from New Zealand for years before and after a recent reduction in the MPA from 20 to 18. This research will measure impacts of the MPA on selection of drinking contexts, assess risks related to drinking in these contexts, estimate cumulative impacts of the MPA change on alcohol problems, and examine risks among indigenous populations after the MPA change. The research will contribute substantively to the formulation of adequate quantitative frameworks with which to assess the impacts of reductions in MLDAs.