Direct, Indirect and total Spatial Impacts of Alcohol Outlets on Related Problem

本部分提出的研究将阐明一些大规模的社会和经济动态 影响到酒类销售点的地理分布，使人们面临与这些问题有关的风险， 出口，并增加酒精问题的发生率。我们将测量出口的空间和时间尺度 影响，以估计物理可用性对问题的直接、间接和总体影响。理论和 实证研究表明，影响出口分布的社会和经济力量涉及空间 人与地之间的互动，发生在多年以后。研究与下列方面有关的问题： 酒精出口表明，类似的空间和时间效应下的出口效应。如果是这样，以前的研究 集中在单一年份和小区域的研究可能低估了网点密度对 问题目前的实证研究还表明，网点过度集中在低收入少数群体 社区，在已知消费较少酒精的人群中。这表明空间 市场对需求反应的位移，因为商店开在靠近高收入地区的零售区，而不是在高收入地区 酒精消费量更大的社区。如果是这样，低收入社区的居民 可能承担过多的社会成本，相关网点的形式问题更大。 拟议中的研究将评估酒精需求在时间和空间上的影响， 从2016年到2017年，出口增长，MVC，攻击，IPV和CAN。该项目的具体目标是： (1)评估出口密度的增长，按类型，响应已知的人口酒精替代品 空间和时间上的需求， (2)评估四个问题的增长有关的酒精出口，以应对酒精的替代品 空间和时间上的需求和出口密度（MVC、攻击、IPV和CAN），以及 (3)从这些模型中计算直接、间接和总的时空效应。 本部分使用的统计模型和方法还将： (4)支持对基于社区的环境预防计划进行档案评估（组件 #2），并协助分析与适应不良的养育有关的结果（CAN，组件#4）。 该项目的短期目标是提供时空的大小和意义的估计 四个酒精相关问题的出口密度相关影响的统计评估滞后。的 长期目标是发展这些影响的规模感，以掌握其全面的公共健康 影响。

The research proposed in this component will explicate some large scale social and economic dynamics that affect geographic distributions of alcohol outlets, expose populations to risks associated with those outlets, and increase rates of alcohol problems. We will measure the spatial and temporal scale of outlet effects to estimate the direct, indirect and total impacts of physical availability on problems. Theoretical and empirical work suggests that the social and economic forces that affect outlet distributions involve spatial interactions between people and places that take place over multiple years. Studies of problems related to alcohol outlets suggest that similar spatial and temporal effects underiie outlet effects. If so, previous studies that focused on single years and small areas may have underestimated the impacts of outlet densities on problems. Current empirical work also indicates that outlets are over-concentrated in low income minority neighborhoods, in populations which are known to consume less alcohol. This suggests spatial displacement in market response to demand as outlets open in retail areas near to, but not in, high income neighborhoods with populations which consume more alcohol. If so, residents of low income neighborhoods may bear excess social costs related to outlets in the form of greater problems. The proposed research will assess the temporal and spatial impacts of the demand for alcohol upon outlet growth, MVCs, assaults, IPV and CAN from through 2016. The Specific Aims of the project are to: (1) Assess the growth of outlet densities, by type, in response to known population surrogates for alcohol demand over space and time, (2) Assess the growth of four problems related to alcohol outlets in response to surrogates for alcohol demand and outlet densities (MVCs, assaults, IPV, and CAN) over space and time, and (3) Calculate direct, indirect and total space-time effects from these models. Statistical models and methods used in this component will also: (4) Support archival evaluations of community-based environmental prevention programs (Component #2) and assist in the analysis of outcomes related to maladaptive parenting (CAN, Component #4). The short term goals of the project are to provide estimates of the size and significance of space-time lags in statistical assessments of effects related to outlet densities for four alcohol related problems. The long term goal is to develop a sense of scale for these effects in order to grasp their full public health impacts.