Monitoring cause-specific school absences to estimate influenza transmission in W

简介(申请人提供)：拟议的三年计划将加强我们对旷课、因流感样疾病而缺课和更广泛的社区流感发病率之间的联系的了解。我们的提案扩展了一组现有的项目，该提案的合作调查员在过去5年中对匹兹堡地区学龄儿童的流感进行了研究。匹兹堡流感预防项目和学校社会融合和呼吸道传播项目使我们能够微调匹兹堡地区的缺勤和呼吸道疾病监测系统。作为这两项研究的一部分，我们在3年多的时间里对6000多名儿童呼吸道疾病的病毒病原学进行了缺席监测和实验室调查。我们 建议在宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡及其周边的三个学区进行特定原因的缺课监测，其中包括11,000名学生。我们将包括多个层面的监测，包括以网络为基础的广泛调查，在部分学校更密切地跟踪和确定呼吸道感染的病毒病原体，以及密切观察每年250名学童的哨兵队列。借鉴现有的时间序列方法和传染病时空模式研究，我们将利用特定原因的缺课数据和其他协变量，开发新的流感发病率社区指标统计模型。几年来，我们一直在与阿勒格尼县卫生局和宾夕法尼亚州卫生局进行研究，并在县和州范围内对流感动态进行研究。这些伙伴关系使我们能够获得阿勒格尼县社区出现流感的分类数据。开展以学校为基础的流感监测、开发新的统计工具来研究传染病的时空动态以及与当地公共卫生当局的长期关系的经验交汇在一起，使我们非常有可能在这个项目中取得成功。Derek Cummings博士是这项提案的首席调查员，每个联合调查员都有在其他研究项目上与他合作和工作的丰富经验。齐默尔博士是一名传染病临床医生，他对2009年大流行期间流感的社区传播和负担以及大流行间期的流感进行了研究。Vukotich先生在阿勒格尼县卫生局(ACHD)担任助理副主任的30年工作中，在公共卫生项目管理方面拥有丰富的经验。我们的目标是开发可传播到其他人群的特定原因缺课监测的方案，开发社区和学校流感时间进程的预测模型，并开发新的统计预测方法。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed three-year project will enhance our understanding of the link between school absences, school absences due to influenza like illness and influenza incidence in the wider community. Our proposal extends an existing set of projects that the co-Investigators of this proposal have conducted on influenza in school-children in the Pittsburgh area in the last 5 years. The Pittsburgh Influenza Prevention Project and the Social Mixing and Respiratory Transmission in Schools project have allowed us to fine tune surveillance systems for absenteeism and respiratory illness in the Pittsburgh area. We have conducted absentee surveillance and performed laboratory investigations of the viral etiology of respiratory illness in over 6000 children over 3 years as part of these two studies. We propose to conduct cause-specific school absence surveillance in three school districts including 11,000 students in and around Pittsburgh, PA. We will include multiple levels of surveillance including web-based surveys targeted broadly, closer follow-up and determination of viral etiology of respiratory infections in a subset of schools and close observation of a sentinel cohort of 250 school children each year. Drawing upon existing methodological work on time series and studies of spatial-temporal patterns of infectious disease, we will develop new statistical models of community metrics of influenza incidence using cause- specific school absence data and other covariates. We have been engaged in research and collaboration with the Allegheny County Health Department and the Pennsylvania Department of Health for several years in a study of influenza dynamics, county and state-wide. These partnerships have gained us access to disaggregate data on the appearance of influenza in the Allegheny county community. The intersection of experience conducting school-based influenza surveillance, developing novel statistical tools to study spatial-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases and long standing relationships with local public health authorities position us extremely well to succeed in this project. Dr. Derek Cummings is the Principal Investigator of this proposal, and each of the co-investigators has extensive experience working and collaborating with him on other research projects. Dr. Zimmer is an infectious disease clinician who has performed studies of the community transmission and burden of influenza in the 2009 pandemic and of influenza in interpandemic periods. Mr. Vukotich has extensive experience in public health project management stemming from 30 years of work at the Allegheny County Health Department (ACHD) as Assistant Deputy Director. We aim to develop protocols for conducting cause-specific school absence surveillance that can be transported to other populations, develop predictive models of the temporal course of influenza in communities and schools and develop novel statistical methods for prediction.