Microsimulation of Obesity Policies

 描述(由申请人提供)：在过去的三十年里，肥胖症的流行率急剧上升，与之相应的疾病负担也在增加。这种负担很大程度上是可以预防的。但是，尽管人们普遍同意经济、自然和社会环境在塑造健康行为方面的作用，但尚不清楚所建议的政策在各国的有效性和成本方面的表现。人们不乏如何应对肥胖流行病的建议--差距在于如何评估干预措施可能产生的长期影响，以及这种影响如何因国家或人口而异。由于各国数据的质量和数量各不相同，而且在干预之后的许多年内，人们感兴趣的最终结果(人口层面的慢性病预防)不会显现，因此需要像我们在这个项目中开发的数学模型来整合来自多个来源的信息。该项目开发了一个微观模拟模型(MSM)来分析和预测各国肥胖预防政策的后果，并提供一个综合的决策支持工具。该项目的具体目标是：(1)开发、测试和验证动态微观模拟建模平台，捕捉美国、澳大利亚、墨西哥和其他4个国家的饮食、体力活动和BMI的个人和社会动态；(2)使用该平台预测与当前行为风险因素相关的健康、社会和经济后果；(3)评估多个领域(食品税和补贴、标签法、积极的交通运输、媒体活动、自愿性行业努力/自我监管)在减少与不活动和过量热量相关的社会危害方面的结果和成本 (4)向研究人员和政策制定者提供一个开放的互联网版本的模型，以进行他们自己的计算。

 DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The prevalence of obesity has increased dramatically over the last three decades, as has its corresponding burden of disease. Much of that burden is preventable. But while there is general agreement about the role of economic, physical, and social environments in shaping health behaviors, it is unclear how suggested policies perform in terms of effectiveness and costs across countries. There is no shortage of suggestions how to address the obesity epidemic - the gap is how to assess the likely long-run effects of interventions and how that varies by country or population. As quality and quantity of data vary across countries and the ultimate outcomes of interest (prevention of chronic illness at the population level) will not manifest for many years following an intervention, mathematical models like the one we develop in this project are needed to integrate the information from multiple sources. This project develops a microsimulation model (MSM) to analyze and predict consequences of obesity prevention policies across countries and to provide an integrated decision support tool. The specific aims of this project are to: (1) Develop, test and validate a dynamic microsimulation modeling platform, capturing both individual and social dynamics of diet, physical activity, and BMI for the US, Australia, Mexico, and 4 other countries; (2) Use the platform to project the health, social and economic consequences associated with current behavioral risk factors; (3) Assess the outcomes and costs of policies in multiple areas (food taxes and subsidies, labeling laws, active transportation, media campaigns, voluntary industry efforts/self-regulation) at reducing the social harms associated with inactivity and excess caloric intake; (4) Provide an open internet version of the model to researchers and policy makers to conduct their own calculations.